NAIROBI, July 13 (Reuters) - Kenya's political landscape has been shaken up
after the International Criminal Court said two of the country's leading
presidential contenders must go on trial next year accused of crimes against
humanity a month after March elections.
The Hague-based court wants to hold the two men responsible for their role
in deadly violence that erupted in 2007 after a disputed presidential vote
in east Africa's largest economy.
The main factor to watch in Kenya ahead of the elections is whether or not
they will cooperate with the ICC.
DATE WITH DESTINY
Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, former finance and higher education
ministers respectively, are among four Kenyans facing charges over bloodshed
which followed the disputed elections.
All four deny wrongdoing and have said they will cooperate with the court in
investigating the worst inter-community fighting in Kenya's history.
The country's next national poll will be under intense scrutiny as it will
be the first since the 2007 poll in which 1,200 people were slaughtered in a
country previously seen as a relative haven of peace in a troubled region.
Kenyatta and Ruto are charged with directing mobs to commit the violence
that pushed Kenya to the brink of civil war.
If elected, analysts doubt they would agree to appear before the court,
while if they lost and were handed over, the next president would probably
struggle to contain the resulting political damage.
"If Kenyatta were elected, I think there would be a significant chance that
he would refuse to attend the proceedings," Washington-based Clare Allenson,
Africa analyst for political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said.
In the event of a run-off for the presidency, it would be a close call for
the duo because that vote is slated for April.
Political uncertainty is being further heightened by rights groups which
have asked the High Court to stop Kenyatta and Ruto from running for the
presidency on the grounds that the charges should make them ineligible for
public office.
Kenyatta is the son of Kenya's founding father Jomo Kenyatta with a fortune
estimated by Forbes magazine at half a billion dollars.
He and Ruto are both going up against Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who leads
opinion polls in the presidential race. Kenyatta is running second.
The other Kenyans charged are radio presenter Joshua arap Sang and Francis
Muthaura, the former head of the civil service.
Aware that evidence might emerge at the trials that could taint government
officials, there have been signs that Kenya's government would prefer
Kenyatta and Ruto to avoid a date with the war crimes court.
In what is his final term, President Mwai Kibaki has made it clear he wants
the cases transferred to Nairobi to be tried under Kenyan law.
In April, Kibaki managed to persuade a heads of states meeting of the East
African Community to pass a resolution extending the jurisdiction of the
Tanzania-based East Africa Court of Justice to cover crimes against
humanity.
Kibaki is also thought to be behind a move expected at an African Union
summit in Addis Ababa this week to propose the creation of an African court
to rival the ICC.
He is seen favouring Kenyatta to replace him, though he has not said so
publicly.
Nairobi has been very critical of the ICC and supportive of Sudanese
President Omar al-Bashir, who has ignored an ICC arrest warrant.
However, officially Kenya - like the suspects - says it will cooperate with
the ICC.
Failure to cooperate would concern foreign investors and Western
governments, who want Kenya to ensure the men face justice before the
election.
What to watch:
- Will the Kenyan courts bar them from running?
- Will Kenyatta and Ruto attend the trials?
- If so, will the ICC issue arrest warrants?
- Will Nairobi cooperate with the ICC?
ELECTION DATE
Kenya's electoral body has set the date of the elections for March 4, 2013.
This date is being challenged at the Court of Appeal by rights groups. If
successful, a new election date could be set. Kenya has traditionally held
elections in December.
The coming polls have raised a host of concerns, including new corruption
scams, tribe-based political parties and a possible slow-down in tourism
that could stifle economic growth.
Kenya's political allegiances are largely driven by tribal alliances rather
than ideology, and there are signs that rising ethnic tensions could lead to
new violence.
Over the past three decades, Kenya has had its lowest growth periods in or
just following election years, says the World Bank. Growth is officially
seen at around 5 percent this year, down from 4.4 percent last year.
What to watch:
- Will the Court of Appeal set a new election date?
SOMALIA
Kenya sent troops into Somalia last October to crush al Qaeda-linked al
Shabaab rebels, accusing them of attacks on its security forces, aid workers
and tourists inside Kenya.
The troops are now under an African Union peacekeeping force. Al Shabaab has
vowed to retaliate.
Kenya suffered simultaneous gun and grenade raids on two churches in Garissa
near the border with Somalia on July 1, that killed at least 17 people in
the worst attack since it sent troops in to hunt down al Shabaab militants.
Other deadly grenade attacks have targeted the capital and the coastal city
of Mombasa. Kenya is also on alert, citing threats by al Shabaab to bring
down skyscrapers in Nairobi.
Police are interrogating two Iranians they arrested in June after seizing
chemicals they suspected were going to be used to make explosives.
Repeated warnings of threats in Kenya by the U.S. embassy have heightened
risk ratings by key political analysts.
What to watch:
- Will further attacks weaken support of the incursion?
- Could further attacks deter tourists, investments and damage the economy?
(Editing by George Obulutsa and Andrew Osborn)
C Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved
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Received on Fri Jul 13 2012 - 19:17:33 EDT
