INTERVIEW-Arab Spring in Sudan could resemble Syria-former PM
Jul 12, 2012 3:44pm GMT
* Economic crisis fuels protests
* Opposition party wants change via negotiations
* Young activists have criticised opposition
* Army, judiciary not independent - Mahdi
By Alexander Dziadosz
KHARTOUM, July 12 (Reuters) - An Arab Spring-style uprising in Sudan would
likely follow the bloody example of Syria or Libya because its armed forces
and judiciary are not independent and could be used against its people,
former prime minister Sadeq al-Mahdi said on Wednesday.
Sudan has so far not seen the wave of popular unrest that unseated
long-serving leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, but austerity
measures launched last month to contain an economic crisis have set off
anti-government protests.
The demonstrations have rarely gathered more than a few hundred people at a
time but discontent over rising food prices and other economic woes worsened
by the secession of oil-producing South Sudan a year ago could yet ignite
more protests, said Mahdi, who was ousted in the bloodless 1989 coup that
brought President Omar Hassan al-Bashir to power.
"All the writing is on the wall ... The regime, which has come to power
through a coup, has failed. All the programmes have failed," he told Reuters
in his compound in the Khartoum suburb of Omdurman.
But he said any uprising was more likely to resemble the one in Syria, where
the armed forces are being used to put down a 16-month revolt, than Tunisia,
whose veteran leader fled to Saudi Arabia in the face of pro-democracy
protests.
"We do not have the same kind of, let us say, national armed forces and
neutral, independent judiciary. In both cases in Sudan the two have been
politicised, like Syria, Libya and Yemen," he said.
Mass demonstrations led to the downfall of military rulers in Sudan in 1964
and 1985. In both, the army sided with demonstrators at some point, Mahdi
said, but said he was less certain that would happen now.
"The uprising, which is possible, could lead to a Syria scenario or a Libya
scenario or a Yemen scenario."
Sudanese officials dismiss charges that the country's courts and other
institutions are politicised. Bashir said on Wednesday there would be no
Arab Spring in Sudan.
RULES OF THE GAME
Mahdi, head of the powerful Muslim Ansar sect and descendent of an Islamic
leader who fought the British in the 19th century, became prime minister
after his party won democratic elections in the 1980s, but was ousted in
1989.
The Oxford-educated politician spent four years in self-imposed exile in the
1990s, but returned to Sudan in 2000.
Last week, his Umma party signed a document with other major opposition
groups calling for strikes, sit-ins and demonstrations to oust the
government, but has yet to bring its members onto the streets in force.
Mahdi said Umma's leadership did not plan to mobilise protesters until after
a " s hadow peace agreement" w ith rebel groups in the western Darfur area
and in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan states.
The party's aim was to create political change through negotiations
involving a variety of players, including the ruling party, rather than
through bloody upheaval, he said.
Young activists have accused the Umma party and other opposition groups of
being too compliant with the establishment and reluctant to press hard for
change.
But Mahdi said: "We are committed to change, it's just that we think it is
possible that the pressures could make change with less blood. We are not
reluctant. We are more experienced, and we know, let us say, the rules of
the game."
Mahdi said the economic situation would continue to fuel sit-ins, strikes
and demonstrations. "When will it boil over? I can't say. But it is there.
It will not go away so long as the factors behind it are there," he said.
(Editing by Janet Lawrence)
C Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved
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Received on Thu Jul 12 2012 - 18:41:37 EDT
