Yemen's Ticking Time Bomb
By: Danya Greenfield posted on Monday, Jul 9, 2012
SANAA, Yemen - Eight months after the ouster of former president Ali
Abdullah Saleh, the streets of Yemen's capital, Sanaa, are quiet. But
violence continues to rage elsewhere and there are serious doubts about
whether the country's leadership can fulfill pledges to restructure the
military, draft a new constitution and hold long-overdue parliamentary
elections.
Time is not on Yemen's side given a
<
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/01/06/the-dictatorship-of-hunger-a
nd-t.html> growing food crisis, 40% unemployment among youth and thousands
of people internally displaced by fighting in Abyan, Shabwa, Aden and
Sa'ada. When asked if the government could achieve its objectives for the
next six months, Abdulkarim Al Iryani, a former prime minister, told me
earlier this month when I met him in Sanaa, "If we look into the future and
work hard, it can happen." But wishing for success and even hard work will
not be enough without tough political decisions and leadership, both of
which are in short supply.
The Gulf Cooperation Council deal that
<
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/yemeni-youth-warn
-against-us-dro.html> removed Saleh did nothing to shift the structure of
elite politics in Yemen and just shuffled the deck among the most powerful
groups. President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who claimed his position through a
non-competitive election on February 21, is not viewed as a particularly
strong leader and was selected because he was the one person both sides
could accept.
He has performed better than most observers expected, but that is primarily
a reflection of how low expectations were. He has taken some important first
steps - replacing several key military commanders and regional governors,
undertaking an aggressive and successful campaign against al-Qaeda and
standing up to former president Saleh's continuing efforts to manipulate
from the sidelines. But days often pass without any sighting of Hadi,
attesting to his low-key approach. Most people I spoke with agreed that if
he can oversee this two-year transitional phase without Yemen collapsing
into civil war, he will have fulfilled his mandate.
However, the transitional government he appointed is less a coalition than a
dysfunctional family, reflecting the divisions still gripping the country.
The ministries are evenly divided between the former ruling General People's
Congress (GPC) and the Joint Meetings Party (JMP) alliance that includes Al
Islah (the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated party) as well as Socialist,
Baathist, Nasserist and independent figures.
Since the government was formed to demonstrate national unity, many of the
ministers are not technocrats but political figures seeking to advance their
own interests, not necessarily those of the country writ large. They often
take direction from party leaders rather than the president or prime
minister.
Recent criticism from within the pro-revolution alliance by the Yemeni
Socialist Party (YSP) against Al Islah's attempts to dominate the ministries
attests to inherent tension that is paralyzing decision making. According to
one minister aligned with the pro-revolutionary coalition, at least four
ministers maintain strong loyalty to the former president, thwarting Hadi's
attempts to move the country into a post-Saleh era.
What is glaringly obvious - and widely acknowledged by all the Yemenis I
spoke with during a visit to Yemen earlier this month - is a lack of vision
from the president, prime minister and the cabinet.
Most Yemenis expect the transitional government to muddle along for the next
two years. While this might be tolerable on the political front, with a
national dialogue process taking center stage to deal with the most pressing
grievances, it will not be sustainable for the economy. UNICEF and OXFAM
have been warning of a mounting humanitarian crisis. Nearly 10 million
people lack sufficient food and 40% are under the poverty line. The only way
to reverse this trend is to get people working and earning incomes. Al
Iryani, the former prime minister, conceded that it is "all about the
economy - everyone is suffering, in the north and the south."
The need for a clear economic vision is urgent. Some economic activity has
started to resume, but unemployment remains debilitating and the cost of
food and basic goods has
<
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/05/inflation-in-yemen-is-at-a
-recor.html> skyrocketed. Inflation is at 23% overall; bread is nearly 120%
its previous price. According to the IMF, the economy shrank by more than
10% last year and is predicted to contract another 0.9% this year. The
government is unable to meet the most basic needs of electricity and water
and the budget deficit has risen with declining oil revenue due to attacks
on pipelines in Marib, low levels of tax collection and subsidies for fuel
and food. Foreign reserves have declined substantially as the Central Bank
has tried to prop up the currency and the government is running a $2.5
billion deficit.
While international assistance has been promised, donors want to know how
their funds will be used. During a Friends of Yemen meeting in Riyadh in
May, donors pledged $4 million, including a commitment of $3.2 billion from
Saudi Arabia. However, none of this money has started to flow and apparently
Saudi Arabia is hesitant to transfer funds until the Yemeni government
submits a detailed economic plan.
The responsibility rests primarily with the Ministry of Planning and
International Cooperation but the plan it presented at the Riyadh meeting
was perceived to be lacking in depth and detail. More recently, the Minister
of Industry and Trade has been given a mandate to develop a long-term
economic plan. The government has started a new Dialogue Council as an
avenue for partnership between the government and the business community,
and two different coalitions of businessmen and private sector experts are
developing economic visions and strategies.
All this is positive and worth encouraging - especially the public-private
dialogue - but how the various plans, strategies and programs will fit
together and who will take the lead, is unclear. Beyond a viable plan, the
government will need to confront the issue of its limited capacity to
implement its ideas. Exploring creative mechanisms for service delivery and
building the capacity of government institutions is a long-term endeavor,
but it cannot afford to wait until the end of the transitional period.
From one vantage point, much has changed in Yemen. Thirty-three years of
divisive and repressive rule by the former president are firmly in the past.
Yemenis of all political stripes acknowledge the importance of turning the
page on this painful era of history. Yet, from another standpoint, very
little has changed. The power structures are still dominated by the same
elites, and Saleh's family members still hold significant positions of
military and political influence. The primary parties - GPC and Al Islah -
still control decision-making, and independent voices and youth have little,
if any, real clout. Opening up the political and economic space beyond this
narrow segment and providing real leadership for Yemen's short and long-term
future will be essential for the government to sustain the gains made to
date and to carry Yemen into the next stage of its transition.
Danya Greenfield is the deputy director of the
<
http://www.acus.org/program/hariri-middle-east-center> Rafik Hariri Center
for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council. The Hariri Center and POMED
have launched a new Yemen Policy Initiative to advocate for a comprehensive,
long-term, development-oriented US policy in Yemen. She was previously with
the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), where she managed
projects in Yemen and traveled there frequently between 2007-2010.
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Received on Tue Jul 10 2012 - 11:05:11 EDT
