Creating lasting security in Sudan
<
http://www.opendemocracy.net/author/moez-ali> Moez Ali , 8 July 2012
Sceptics say regime change in Sudan would worsen the security situation. But
the three wars and massive proliferation of small arms can be traced to the
current regime's mismanagement.
Sudan is witnessing a wave of protests never seen before in the reign of the
current ruling regime. The protests were sparked by a standoff made by the
occupants of the female dormitories at the University of Khartoum on the
16th of June, demanding more funding towards educational facilities. The
dorms were raided by police and security personnel late at night. The raid
sparked a series of protests by University of Khartoum students the
following week, which were met with a heavy police clampdown.
The protests have since moved out of the university campus and into other
areas in Khartoum. Last week saw residents of several areas in Khartoum, and
other major cities, take up the demand for the fall of the regime.
As expected, the media coverage of the Sudanese protests has been poor, and
will continue to be as the government is taking all the necessary measures
to stifle any attempt of a revolution. Late last week, Bloomberg
correspondent and Egyptian national Salma El Wardany, was deported for
covering the protests. On "Lick your Elbow" Friday, AFP's Sudan office was
raided by security personnel and one of their photographers was detained for
taking photos during the protests that day in Wad Nubawi, Omdurman.
Image: Rob Pinney at
<
http://robpinney.photoshelter.com/gallery/30-06-2012-Sudanese-Solidarity-Ba
refoot-Protest/G0000VJfZdcNqetg/> robpinney.com. All rights reserved.
The measly amount of coverage that was eventually received saw a direct
comparison between the protests in Sudan and the Arab Spring. Some news
agencies have even claimed that "the Arab Spring has arrived in Sudan."
These comparisons are not only wide of the mark, but highlight the
consistent lack of coverage of Sudanese issues, with or without protests.
The protests in Sudan have been sparked by the austerity measures taken by
the government to make up for a $2.5 billion budget deficit. The measures
include the removal of fuel subsidies - which has a direct impact on food
prices - and cutting down on government expenditure. The Sudanese economy
has seen inflation reach the 30% mark with economists predicting an increase
still.
The protesters took to the streets chanting against high commodity prices,
and eventually calling for the fall of the regime. The development of events
in Sudan is proof that the only way forward for Sudan is regime change. The
protesters understand that whatever measures the government has taken to fix
the ailing economy are a little too late. The government's budget allocation
seems to favour the survival of the regime more than anything else.
In 2011, the government spent 80% of its budget on defence and security,
with a meagre 1.5% and 2% going towards health and education respectively.
This has been the case for several years. It is evident from such figures
that the government's priorities are towards maintaining its grip on power
while fending off rebel groups in South Kurdofan, Blue Nile State and
Darfur.
Some sceptics have claimed that it is necessary for the current regime to be
in power because of the security situation on the ground. They claim that if
the regime falls there would be no guarantee that the rebels from the
aforementioned areas wouldn't march into Khartoum and claim the throne.
Another security issue is the proliferation of arms around the country.
However rather than guaranteeing security, the current regime has long been
the cause of the country's insecurity.
The three wars that the government is currently engaged in are all symptoms
of government mismanagement. The Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) founded
by the late Khalil Ibrahim took up arms against the government due to a lack
of allocation of funds towards the state of Darfur. Ibrahim was a member of
Hassan al-Turabi's NIF that brought the current military regime to power,
but later announced his resignation and established the JEM after blatant
marginalization of Darfur and its residents. Despite the signing of the Doha
Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) between the government and a unified
Darfurian opposition - of which the JEM did not approve - the JEM, now
headed by Ibrahim's brother, is still continuing in its fight for
representation in the central government. After the signing of DDPD, Omar
al-Bashir appointed Haj Adam Yousif - an Islamist from an Arab tribe in
Darfur - as his second vice president. The appointment was meant to appease
the rebel groups in Darfur. However, this appointment did not represent the
marginalized African tribes in Darfur, mainly the Fur, represented by Abdul
Wahid Nur's Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM), and the Zagahawa,
represented by Ibrahim's JEM.
In South Kurdofan, again, a rebel group is fighting for the same
representation in the central government. During the North-South civil war,
the inhabitants of the Nuba Mountains, lead by Abdul Aziz Al-Hilu, saw an
opportunity to address their plight and joined the ranks of the Sudanese
People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). After seeing what Al-Hilu claimed as
rigged elections for the governorship of South Kurdofan which brought Ahmed
Haroun on as governor, Al-Hilu took up arms - independently this time -
against the central government in Khartoum with what was left of his Nuba
SPLM soldiers.
In the Blue Nile State, Omar al-Bashir appointed Al-Hadi Bushra for the
governorship of the state after sacking elected governor Malik Agar,
chairman of the SPLM-North, following clashes between the Sudanese Armed
Forces (SAF) and SPLM-North. Al-Hadi Bushra served as Director of Military
Intelligence in Sadig al-Mahdi's government until 1989, at which point he
fled the country after the military coup orchestrated by Hassan al-Turabi
and led by Omar al-Bashir. Bushra eventually made peace with al-Bashir's
government, the NCP, and came back in 1996 and since then served as Minister
of Roads and Bridges and governor of some states.
All the above scenarios illustrate the government's unremitting effort to
bring all Sudanese states under the rule of the National Congress Party
(NCP). The government's allocation of funds towards defence and security is
a direct consequence of the wars it's engaged in against its own people.
It's a never ending cycle. The longer the wars continue, the more money
would be spent on defence, and less on civilian needs. The same civilian
needs that brought rebels to arms, and the protesters to the streets.
The proliferation of arms around the country finds its roots in the Darfur
conflict. The government armed Arab tribes to use as proxy armies against
the rebels of the JEM and SLM. These arming processes were not monitored,
and there are currently many armed individuals in Darfur and other regions
in Sudan. However, since the government had made the choice of arming
civilians so haphazardly to fight its wars, there is no guarantee that this
same government will be able to introduce a workable disarmament process.
The security situation in Sudan has been caused by rapacious and belligerent
policies by a regime that is losing its grip on power. The desperation of
the regime is evident in the violence it has used in suppressing the recent
wave of protests sweeping the country.
The current wars in Sudan are not directly linked to the protests around the
country, but they do share a common factor: government mismanagement. The
rampant corruption that has been plaguing Sudan under the auspice of the
government has seen an overwhelming number of cases of political
appointments and unlawful wealth accumulation. This caused a divide between
the ruling elite and the civilian population. Income inequality in Sudan is
at an all time high, the health system is chaotic, the educational system
has been destroyed, the infrastructure is inexistent, the judiciary is run
by the regime, and there's a lack of cohesive state institutions.
The rebel SPLM-North, led by Malik Agar, has recently shown its support for
the ongoing protests in Sudan and has vowed to declare a ceasefire should
al-Bashir's government fall. Agar went on to say that a ceasefire would be
necessary to create an environment favourable to a peaceful transition of
power. This is indicative of the common grievances between civilians and
armed rebel groups
When the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed between John
Garang's SPLM/A and Omar al-Bashir's government in 2005, there were many
indications that the South was eventually going to secede. However, not only
did the government not make a united Sudan enticing, but it failed to make
the necessary contingency plans for possible secession. The oil years in
Sudan saw the demise of the agricultural sector, which employs most of
Sudan's labour force. Now that 75% of the oil income has been lost to the
South, the government has made frantic attempts at gold excavation to make
up for the loss of oil income.
Now, 7 years later and one year after the secession of South Sudan, the
regime in Khartoum is trying desperately to fix an economy it had
consciously mishandled. The protests taking place in Khartoum and other
cities around Sudan are a corollary of this wealth mismanagement and
corruption. It is obvious now, and has been for a while, that this current
regime doesn't have the necessary expertise or knowledge to run a country.
As the protesters have been chanting for two weeks now, regime change is the
only way forward for Sudan. The current regime has been in power for 23
years with nothing to show for it. Al-Bashir and his ilk should recognize
their ineptitude and hand over power to those who are capable and have no
personal agendas.
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Received on Sun Jul 08 2012 - 16:57:57 EDT
