ANALYSIS-No light at end of Egyptian tunnel for Israel
Tue Jun 19, 2012 3:48pm GMT
* Rise of Muslim Brotherhood, Sinai violence alarm Israel
* Public frustration grows over Sinai attacks
* Israel hopes Egyptian military will hold levers of power
By Crispian Balmer
JERUSALEM, June 19 (Reuters) - Egypt's political upheaval is by no means
over, but its uneasy neighbour Israel is not waiting for the outcome. Desert
defences are being strengthened and strategy revised as a once stable
relationship splinters.
Shortly after the Muslim Brotherhood claimed victory in Egypt's presidential
vote on Monday, unidentified gunmen crossed the Sinai border and killed an
Israeli worker. {ID:nL5E8HI0LA]
There was no suggestion the two events were linked, but the violence
underscores how security in the Sinai Peninsula has deteriorated since the
downfall of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011, with no hope of any swift
solution while Cairo remains convulsed by political uncertainty.
"What is going on along the southern border worries me ... and the ideology
of political Islam in Egypt worries me, so I need to sleep with one eye
open," said Ilan Mizrahi, a former Israeli national security adviser and
ex-deputy head of Mossad.
Israel faces a dilemma of major strategic consequences.
Its 33-year peace with Egypt has been a cornerstone of regional stability
and an economic boon for both countries, thanks in part to generous U.S.
aid.
No one expects Cairo to bin the peace accord any time soon, even if the
Muslim Brotherhood, which is traditionally hostile to the Jewish State, does
manage to consolidate power in the face of an Egyptian military out to
conserve its own authority.
A demilitarised Sinai is the keystone of the peace. But for the past year
there has been growing lawlessness in the vast desert expanse, as Bedouin
bandits, jihadists and Palestinian militants from next-door Gaza fill the
vacuum, tearing at already frayed relations between Egypt and Israel.
"We need to be sensitive about what is going on in Cairo and try to make
Egypt understand that this needs to be stopped," said Mizrahi in a telephone
interview.
"If nothing happens, then I expect my country to react as we know how to
react and stop these attacks on our civilians," he added, suggesting that if
needs be, Israel should cross the border to track down its enemies.
Such a move would mark a dangerous turning point in an already inflammatory
region.
GROWING FRUSTRATION
Israel has remained largely silent as Egypt has struggled in the difficult
transition from de-facto dictatorship to democracy, via revolution and
growing Islamisation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered
ministers not to talk in public about the situation for fear of exacerbating
tensions.
But there are signs of growing public frustration in Israel.
Last August, eight Israelis died in a cross-border attack blamed on
Palestinian militants from the nearby Gaza Strip. Earlier this week, Israel
said two grad rockets that hit its territory were fired out of Sinai - a
charge Egypt denied.
The worsening security in the south has come at a time of increased tensions
in the north, tied to the 15-months-long Syrian crisis, and continuous,
low-level warfare in Gaza.
A cartoon in left-leaning Haaertz newspaper on Tuesday showed Netanyahu
crouching in a ditch alongside Defence Minister Ehud Barak as rockets fly in
from Egypt. "Just make sure you don't upset the Egyptians," the prime
minister says.
Israeli officials have so far ruled out direct intervention in the Sinai and
have instead urged Egypt to resolve the problem by itself, letting its
military dispatch more troops to the peninsula than allowed for by their
historic, 1979 peace treaty.
At the same time, Israel is speeding up construction of a 5-metre (16-foot)
high barrier that will run most of the 266 km (165 miles) from Eilat on the
Red Sea's Gulf of Aqaba up to the Gaza Strip on the Mediterranean.
"We are in a race against the clock to close the border," said Gaza Division
Southern Brigade Commander Tal Harmoni following Monday's attack, in which
the Israeli army shot dead at least two of the militants before they could
return to Egypt.
But as the Israelis have discovered in Gaza, a fence does not keep out
rockets or missiles. So unless it opts for direct intervention, it will have
to depend on Egyptian intervention.
APPROVING MILITARY MANOEUVRES
The Israeli government has remained in close contact with the Egyptian
security apparatus since the downfall of Mubarak and officials, speaking off
the record, say relations with the generals in Cairo remain essentially
good.
Certainly there was no murmuring from Israel this week when Egypt's military
announced it would drastically limit the remit of the new president - most
probably Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsy.
By contrast, Washington said it was "deeply concerned" by this and asked the
army to transfer full power to an elected civilian government as previously
promised.
"All in all, the play that was put in motion by the Supreme Council of the
Armed Forces against Morsy isnt bad for us," the leading Israeli newspaper
Yedioth Ahronoth said on Tuesday.
But an analysis in the same paper warned of bad times ahead. "It isnt the
same Egypt, it isnt the same border, the peace accords are on their
deathbed and we had better change our operating manual," wrote prominent
columnist Alex Fishman.
One of Mubarak's greatest services to Israel was the role he played in
containing the Islamist Hamas movement, which rejects Israel's right to
exist and has close ties to the Brotherhood, limiting its access to weapons
and hemming in its leadership.
Israel believes an empowered Brotherhood will reverse that policy, creating
instant friction between the erstwhile allies.
"The announcement of the official presidential results will not mark the end
of the turmoil in Egypt and will not bring us any relief. We are going to
have a very long hot summer," said Israel's former ambassador to Egypt, Eli
Shaked. (Editing by Jon Hemming)
Egypt Islamists say not seeking army confrontation
Tue Jun 19, 2012 4:44pm GMT
* Brotherhood says candidate won presidency, rival disputes
* Dissolution of parliament scrubbed out main Islamist gain
* Thousands protest at army decree assuming legislative power (Adds comments
by Shafik campaign, protests)
By Dina Zayed and Tamim Elyan
CAIRO, June 19 (Reuters) - Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood declared on Tuesday it
did not want a confrontation with the ruling generals but said the army did
not have the right to curb presidential powers after a vote the group says
its candidate won.
The campaign of Ahmed Shafik, the ex-military man who was in the run-off
against the Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsy, has also claimed victory in the
race. Official results from the weekend vote are not expected to be
announced until Thursday.
The ruling army council, which took control when former President Hosni
Mubarak was driven from office last year, issued an 11th-hour decree
assuming legislative powers until a new parliament is elected, and keeping
control of army affairs.
The decree came out on Sunday as counting for the presidential vote was
under way. Days earlier the army had implemented a court ruling to dissolve
the Islamist-led parliament, stripping the Brotherhood of its biggest gain
since Mubarak was ousted.
Thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square and outside the
parliament building on Tuesday to protest against the army's decree.
Protesters also gathered in Egypt's second city of Alexandria.
It came after the Brotherhood, backed by other factions including
ultra-orthodox Salafi groups, called for a mass rally.
"We do not seek any confrontation with anyone and no one in Egypt wants
confrontation," said Yasser Ali, spokesman for Morsy's campaign.
APPEALS
"There has to be dialogue between national forces, and the people alone must
decide their fate," he told a news conference, but added: "Nobody in Egypt
is above the state and the constitution ... Everyone must abide by the
popular will."
The Morsy campaign restated claims that the Brotherhood candidate had
secured 52 percent of the vote in the run-off held on Saturday and Sunday,
compared to 48 percent for Shafik, who was Mubarak's last prime minister.
"We are speaking of facts and documents and not indicators or speculation.
That is what is different from what the other party says to you," Ali said,
issuing numbers that the group compiled from their records of the count. The
figures were slightly different from the numbers they announced on Monday.
"There is no shred of doubt that these numbers will be the numbers that the
election committee will announce," he said. "There may be slight changes
after appeals from both parties but we are confident in what we say."
Shafik's campaign also held a news conference to restate its claim to have
won, saying he had 51.5 percent of the vote.
"We will go to the maximum legal point possible to confirm the fact that
Shafik leads the results and confirm he is the next president of Egypt,"
spokesman Karim Salem said.
Each candidate is allowed representatives at polling stations, which means
they can collect a national tally even though the election committee has not
announced results.
Morsy's campaign has filed more than 100 appeals contesting the results in
smaller constituencies. Shafik's campaign said it was also lodging appeals.
An election committee official said appeals could be filed until Tuesday
evening, the official news agency reported. (Writing by Tamim Elyan; Editing
by Edmund Blair and Pravin Char)
C Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved
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Received on Tue Jun 19 2012 - 17:31:43 EDT
