ANALYSIS-Somali rebels bruised, but may dodge knockout blow
Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:00am GMT
* Al Shabaab fighting for survival against regional armies
* Kenya says will seize last militant bastion by August
* Fears of redeployment, link up with al Qaeda in Yemen
* Slow pace of political reforms a risk to security gains
By Richard Lough
NAIROBI, June 19 (Reuters) - Expelled from a string of strategic towns, cut
off from revenue sources and struggling for its survival, Somalia's Islamist
militant group al Shabaab is steeling for an anticipated assault on its last
bastion by Western-backed African forces.
But while the capture of the southern port and militant stronghold of
Kismayu in coming weeks could weaken the al Qaeda-linked rebels, it is
unlikely to deliver the knock-out blow hoped for by Mogadishu and its
allies.
Kenyan forces operating in Somalia seized the southern rebel stronghold of
Afmadow in late May. This opened the way for what Kenyan Prime Minister
Raila Odinga said would be a "final onslaught" on Kismayu, Somalia's second
biggest city which is a hub for al Shabaab and a main base for its foreign
fighters.
Kismayu would be taken by August, Odinga said this month.
But some regional diplomats feel this target is over ambitious. There are
fears too a wounded al Shabaab will simply redeploy from Kismayu and hit
back with guerrilla raids and urban bombings, disrupting efforts to end two
decades of violence in the Horn of Africa state.
"The fall of Kismayu might hurt the rebel economy, but they will launch more
attacks," said Hassan Farah, a shopkeeper in the coastal city. He said the
dense forest surrounding the port would be an easy hiding ground for the
rebels.
"Al Shabaab will not go far, even if they lose Kismayu."
The diplomats argue that African Union peace keepers deployed against al
Shabaab need to consolidate their numbers in other recently won urban areas,
before the assault on Kismayu.
There are also questions about whether the rebels, wary of possible heavy
casualties and an expensive battle, will dig in and defend the
densely-populated port that has served as a financial lifeline, or melt into
the jungle hinterlands.
"Kismayu has a strong administration under al Shabaab. The markets are busy
and there is security," said Farah. "I know of many residents who are ready
to fight alongside al Shabaab."
Natznet Tesfay, a Somalia expert from Exclusive Analysis, said al Shabaab
would likely pull back and turn to guerrilla-style hit-and-run sabotage
attacks, as they did in Mogadishu after they were expelled by African
troops.
"We are more likely to see a lull in the intensity (of) al Shabaab activity
and possibly a rebranding rather than the group's collapse," Tesfay said.
That, Tesfay said, could mean the Islamist movement splitting into splinter
groups, between those motivated by a nationalist agenda to impose strict
sharia law on the country, and those motivated by more global jihadi
sentiments.
NO TIPPING POINT YET
An al Shabaab suicide bomber on Saturday attacked a government base outside
the Somali capital in Afgoye, a town captured at the end of May by Somali
government and African Union troops. This underscored the security challenge
facing the government and its allies despite their recent successes.
The market town was a cash cow for al Shabaab which extorted taxes on goods
destined for Mogadishu, compounding the financial blow the insurgents
suffered last August when they were driven from Mogadishu's Bakara market,
the capital's economic heart.
In a sign of the mounting pressure on the group, a steady trickle of
defections points to low morale within rebel ranks. Defectors tell of al
Shabaab footsoldiers demoralised by battle fatigue, meagre salaries and a
lack of sophisticated weaponry.
Mogadishu's Western allies are keen to capitalise on the group's troubles.
Washington this month offered multi-million dollar bounties for information
leading to the location of seven key militant commanders.
But talk of a "tipping point" is premature, analysts say.
"While there are clearly splits within al Shabaab, divisions which will be
exacerbated by the loss of two of the most significant towns still under its
control, al Shabaab has always shown a remarkable resilience," said J. Peter
Pham of U.S. think-tank the Atlantic Council.
"In fact, there is already evidence that the group has laid the foundations
for its eventual resurgence after the current setbacks."
LINKS TO AL QAEDA IN YEMEN
Intelligence picked up by security agencies, research by the United Nations
and accounts by Muslim Kenyans suggests al Shabaab is mentoring a new and
increasingly multi-ethnic generation of militants.
The concern is that an increasingly cornered al Shabaab may attack more
widely in the region, a capability demonstrated by a double bombing in
Uganda in 2010 that killed 79 people.
Under pressure in south and central Somalia, diplomats say al Shabaab is
moving combatants to the semi-autonomous Puntland territory that is
separated by only a narrow neck of water from Yemen, a hotspot in the
U.S.-led war against militant Islam.
"Obviously it's of concern not just because it could further undermine
stability in ... a more secure and stable area, but also because of a
potential link up to AQAP (al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula)," said a
senior diplomatic source who follows Somalia.
Al Shabaab formally joined al Qaeda's ranks in February. The diplomat said
there were definitely contacts - "facilitators" from AQAP or Somalis in
Yemen who have ties to both groups going back and forth. But there had been
little visible evidence so far of more strategic coordination or active
combined plotting.
Puntland's authorities have warned of growing militant numbers in the rugged
mountains south of Bossaso, an area that would provide hideouts and access
to ports to bring in weapons, ammunition and foreign jihadists.
"BANDAGE ON A GAPING WOUND"
The rebels retain pockets of support in areas under their control, despite
the sometimes draconian rules they have imposed that include amputation of
criminals' limbs and banning of music and watching football.
In the former rebel stronghold of Baidoa, trader Fatuma Bashir lamented the
failure of Ethiopian and Somali soldiers now there to prevent recurring
militant grenade attacks as the city awaits the deployment of more than
2,000 AU peacekeepers.
"We don't want al Shabaab back, but life has not changed for the better
after the seizure of the town," Bashir said. "Al Shabaab used to take tax
from our sales in the city. Now they tax our commodities outside Baidoa,"
she said.
Two decades after Somalia's civil conflict erupted, the central government
still exerts little meaningful control beyond the capital. Security analysts
say al Shabaab could take advantage of power vacuums if concrete political
administration and reform does not keep pace with military advances.
"All the attention is on getting rid of al Shabaab. Then what? There are no
institutions ... to implement the rule of law," said London-based Somali
analyst Hamza Mohamed.
"They are not solving the issues that gave rise to al Shabaab. They're just
putting a bandage on a gaping wound."
Somali politics has long been driven by feuding clans battling to safeguard
their hold on the accompanying financial spoils. Many Somalis remain
unconvinced their leaders are committed to lasting reform and peace.
David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, said the political
landscape in Somalia had changed through the conflict for the "foreseeable
and possibly permanent future".
"Militant Islam, or at least Salafi ideology, is here to stay just as we are
seeing in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and to a lesser extent Morocco," Shinn said.
(Additional reporting by David Clarke and James Macharia in Nairobi and Abdi
Sheikh in Mogadishu; Writing by Richard Lough; Editing by Pascal Fletcher
and Anna Willard)
June 19 (Reuters) - Expelled from a string of strategic towns, cut off from
revenue sources and struggling for its survival, Somalia's Islamist militant
group al Shabaab is steeling for an anticipated assault on its last bastion
by Western-backed African forces.
Here is a look at the al Shabaab group.
* AL SHABAAB WAGING WAR IN SOMALIA:
- Al Shabaab, which means "Youth" or "Boys" in Arabic, seized control of
large areas of south and central Somalia. The Horn of Africa nation has been
mired in anarchy since warlords toppled military dictator Mohamed Siad Barre
in 1991.
- The interim government's attempts to restore control have been paralysed
by infighting and the Islamist-led insurgency. The chaos has helped fuel
kidnappings and piracy.
- Al Shabaab's hardline militia was part of Somalia's Islamic Courts Union
movement that pushed U.S.-backed warlords out of Mogadishu in June 2006 and
ruled for six months before Somali and Ethiopian forces ousted them.
- Five years on in August 2011, al Shabaab insurgents began pulling their
fighters out of the capital, Mogadishu, raising hopes that humanitarian
groups would be able to increase aid.
- Rejecting Somali President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed's claim to have quashed the
insurgency, the militants said the retreat was tactical, and in October 2011
they struck the capital with their deadliest attack since their insurgency
started in 2007. A truck laden with drums of fuel rammed a checkpoint
outside government ministries in Mogadishu, killing more than 70 people.
- The rebels' retreat from Mogadishu did, however, signal that they could
not militarily defeat a government propped up by foreign firepower. The
group has been weakened as Ethiopian and Kenyan troops advanced on rebel
strongholds in southern Somalia, seizing back in February the central city
of Baidoa, the former seat of the Somali parliament, as well as several
other strategic towns.
- Al Qaeda announced last February that al Shabaab had joined its ranks in
an apparent effort to boost morale diminished by many setbacks including the
loss of founder Osama bin Laden.
- Recently the group has resorted to guerrilla-style tactics against AMISOM
troops. However there has also been some success in fighting them, with
AU-backed Somali soldiers securing a route linking Afgoye, 29 km northwest
of Mogadishu, with the capital at the end of May 2012.
-- Kenyan and Somali government troops captured the stronghold of Afmadow on
May 31. Afmadow was seen as crucial to an advance on the rebels' main
bastion, the southern port city of Kismayu which Kenya plans to capture by
August.
* AL SHABAAB THREATS AND MAJOR ATTACKS:
- A suicide bombing in June 2009 killed Somalia's security minister and at
least 30 other people in a hotel in Beledweyne.
- A suicide bomber killed four government ministers and 19 others after an
attack on Dec. 3, 2009, on a graduation ceremony at Mogadishu's Shamo Hotel.
- In July 2010, al Shabaab staged a bomb attack in Kampala that killed 79
people who were watching the soccer World Cup final. The strike, its first
on foreign soil, was to avenge Uganda's participation in the AU peacekeeping
force.
- Al Shabaab rebels said they killed Somali Interior Minister Abdi Shakur
Sheikh Hassan on June 10, 2011.
- Two attacks on a Nairobi bus station and a bar killed one person and
wounded more than 20 in late October 2011. Earlier that month, Kenya sent
the military into Somalia to crush the militants that Nairobi blamed for
several attacks on Kenyan soil. Al Shabaab threatened reprisals if the
troops did not go.
- Kenyan police blamed al Shabaab rebels for grenade attacks that killed at
least six people at the Machakos bus station in Nairobi on March 10, 2012.
- The head of Somalia's soccer federation and Olympic committee were among
at least six killed in April when an al Shabaab suicide bomber struck
Mogadishu's newly-reopened national theatre. Days later at least 12 people
were killed in a bomb attack in Baidoa targeting Somali and Ethiopian
troops.
- In a brazen attack the rebels struck at a convoy carrying President Ahmed
outside the town of Elasha underscoring the ease which they can still
strike. The president escaped unharmed. (Reporting by David Cutler, London
Editorial Reference Unit; editing by Anna Willard)
C Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved
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Received on Tue Jun 19 2012 - 17:12:40 EDT
