NAIROBI, June 13 (Reuters) - The International Criminal Court is expected to
announce by July 13 the trial dates for two leading Kenyan presidential
contenders accused of crimes against humanity, and the timing of the trials
could have a big effect on the election result.
Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, former finance and higher education
ministers respectively, are among four Kenyans facing charges over bloodshed
which followed disputed 2007 elections.
Both men are running for president in a poll due to be held by March 2013,
and trial dates before then could scupper their challenges because they
would be required to make regular court appearances.
ICC COOPERATION?
Kenyatta is the son of Kenya's founding father Jomo Kenyatta with a fortune
estimated by Forbes magazine at half a billion dollars. He and Ruto are both
going up against Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who leads opinion polls in the
presidential race, followed by Kenyatta.
Their International Criminal Court (ICC) cases relate to the worst
inter-community fighting in Kenya's history, after the 2007 poll, which
killed at least 1,220 people and drove more than 300,000 from their homes.
Kenyatta and Ruto are charged with directing mobs to commit the violence
that sent Kenya to the brink of civil war.
The other Kenyans charged are radio presenter Joshua arap Sang and the head
of the civil service, Francis Muthaura.
Lawyers for Kenyatta and Ruto have proposed dates in March next year, so
they can run for the top seat unhindered.
It is uncertain whether the Kenyan government will cooperate with the court
over the prosecutions. Evidence may emerge at the trials that could taint
senior government officials.
President Mwai Kibaki, in his last term at the helm of east Africa's biggest
economy, wants to have the cases transferred to Nairobi to be tried under
Kenyan law.
In April, Kibaki also successfully lobbied during a heads of states meeting
of the East African Community to pass a resolution to extend the
jurisdiction of the Tanzania-based East Africa Court of Justice to cover
crimes against humanity.
Kibaki is thought to favour Kenyatta to replace him, although he has not
said so publicly.
The Kenyan government has been very critical of The Hague-based war ICC and
supportive of Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir, who is avoiding an ICC
arrest warrant.
Failure to cooperate with the international court would concern foreign
investors and Western governments, who want Kenya to ensure the men face
justice before the election.
Officially Kenya says it will cooperate with the ICC, and the suspects have
also said they will comply with the court.
Independent Nairobi-based analyst Aly Khan Satchu said Kenyatta would see
becoming president as a way of eluding the ICC in the same way Bashir has
done.
"Kenyatta will be incentivised to see the election as a get out of the ICC
card. In such an event, our risk levels spike big and a 'Pariah' discount
looms a la Khartoum," he said.
What to watch:
- When will the trials of Kenyatta and Ruto start?
- Will Nairobi cooperate with the ICC?
ELECTION DATE
Kibaki and Odinga are at loggerheads over the date of the elections set for
March 4, 2013, which are bound to come under intense international scrutiny
because they will be the first since the bloody aftermath of the 2007 vote.
The constitution adopted in 2010 had set the date of the polls, when
parliamentary elections will also be held, for August 2012. But the High
Court changed the date to March 2013 because parliament's term expires in
January next year.
This ruling is being challenged at the Court of Appeal, which could open a
door for a new election date. Odinga has said he wants elections to be held
this December.
Kibaki, who is barred by law from contesting a third term, wants to hold
them in March next year as per the court's ruling.
Kibaki and Odinga's opposing views are likely to widen the split in their
already brittle political coalition and cause anxiety among Kenyans over
whether their coalition will survive, which could affect investment and
growth.
The coming polls have spawned a host of concerns, including new corruption
scams, tribe-based political parties and a possible slow-down in tourism
that could stifle economic growth.
Critics say a scandal involving payments by the state medical insurance fund
to "phantom" hospitals could be a repeat of previous major financial scams
that have bankrolled past election campaigns.
Odinga has also said the National Security and Intelligence Service has
informed the government of a likelihood of tribally-instigated poll violence
next year.
Kenya's political allegiances are largely driven by tribal alliances rather
than ideology, and there are signs that rising ethnic tensions could lead to
new violence.
What to watch:
- Will the cabinet survive Kibaki and Odinga's tug-of-war?
- Will the Court of Appeal set a new election date?
SOMALIA
Kenya sent troops into Somalia last October to crush al Qaeda-linked al
Shabaab rebels, accusing them of attacks on its security forces, aid workers
and tourists inside Kenya. The troops are now under an African Union
peacekeeping force.
For now, the incursion has wide backing among Kenyans.
Al Shabaab has vowed to retaliate. At least 10 people have been killed in
grenade attacks in Nairobi and the coastal tourist town of Mombasa, which
the Kenyan government has blamed on the militants.
There have also been grenade and gun attacks in the northeast of the country
near the Somali border.
Kenyan security agencies are on alert, citing threats by al Shabaab to bring
down skyscrapers in its capital.
What to watch:
- Could any further attacks by al Shabaab in the capital or key tourist
sites erode backing for the incursion, deter tourists and damage the
economy? (Editing by David Clarke and Pravin Char)
C Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved
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Received on Thu Jun 14 2012 - 09:33:37 EDT
