The Two Sudans on the Brink
South Sudan's messy separation from the North has provided the perfect
conditions for conflict between the new neighbors. Oil pipelines and
production set the scene for the most recent source of tension.
Prepared by: Richard Downie
6 Jun 2012
_____
There are fears that Sudan and South Sudan are edging closer to all-out war.
The latest crisis has been precipitated by a dispute over oil, which propels
the economies of both countries. South Sudan broke away from Sudan to become
an independent nation in July 2011 but has been unable to agree on terms for
using the North's oil pipeline, its only route to selling its oil. The
dispute escalated in January, when South Sudan shut off production entirely
rather than pay what it said were exorbitant fees to transport its oil
through Sudan. A military confrontation quickly ensued, which culminated in
the seizure by South Sudan's army of the main oil field controlled by the
North, Heglig, on April 10. In a speech to party supporters, President Omar
al-Bashir of Sudan said that efforts to retake Heglig would "not be the end,
but the beginning." He pledged to "liberate" South Sudan from its
government.
Q1: What explains the latest fighting?
A1: The failure of both countries to agree on the terms of their separation
is at the heart of this dispute. Although South Sudan reached independence
peacefully last year, the outcome was achieved by putting off negotiations
on a long list of contentious issues. They included demarcating the common
border and establishing citizenship rights for Southerners living in the
North and vice versa. But top of the list was how to jointly manage the oil
industry, which accounts for 98 percent of revenue in the South and is the
main source of income in the North. When negotiations resumed last fall,
both sides adopted intransigent positions, and the talks quickly broke down.
Exasperated by the failure to reach a deal and moves by Khartoum to
confiscate some of its oil before it could be exported, the government of
South Sudan (GoSS) took the fateful decision to shut down production
entirely.
Layered on top of the diplomatic impasse was a deteriorating security
situation on both sides of the border. GoSS blamed Khartoum for fomenting a
succession of damaging rebellions within its borders. Meanwhile in the
North, a series of conflicts have quickly gotten out of control, mostly in
border regions populated by groups whose sympathies lie with the South. In
keeping with previous patterns of behavior, the regime in Khartoum has
reacted with indiscriminate force, killing civilians and displacing
communities. This response has only served to motivate the rebels.
Worryingly for the regime, disparate groups in Southern Kordofan, Blue Nile,
and Darfur are beginning to coordinate their operations. Last November they
announced the formation of the Sudan Revolutionary Front and declared their
intention to topple President Bashir from power. Khartoum has long
suspected, with some justification, that the Sudan Peoples' Liberation
Movement (SPLM) government in South Sudan is assisting these rebels. This
rising tide of mutual hostility, combined with the punishing economic costs
of the oil shutdown and the aggressive posturing of two ill-disciplined
armies, made a military confrontation more likely. Nevertheless, the
decision by Southern forces from the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Army (SPLA)
to occupy an oil field that is widely regarded as lying within Northern
territory was a major escalation. South Sudan now finds itself in the
unusual position of being painted as the aggressor, while Sudan's demand
that Southern forces immediately withdraw from Heglig has been backed by the
international community, including the United States.
Q2: What are the prospects for ending the fighting in the near term?>
A2: Not good. The hotheads seem to be driving policy on both sides of the
border. Emotions are running high, and recent statements, such as the one
issued by President Bashir, are throwing kerosene on the flames. For the
time being, neither side is showing much inclination to step back from the
brink or suggest a realistic basis for negotiations. A spokesman for GoSS,
Barnaba Marial Benjamin, said the South will not withdraw its forces from
Heglig unless the fighting stops, the African Union acts as guarantor of a
cease-fire, Sudanese forces withdraw from the contested border region of
Abyei, and an agreement on demarcating the border is reached. It is unlikely
these demands will be met in the near term. For its part, Khartoum's current
strategy does not appear to extend beyond winning Heglig back by force.
Q3: What can the United States do to stop the fighting?
A3: The United States, in common with the rest of the international
community, is in the frustrating position of having to watch from the
sidelines while the peace unravels. Special Envoy Princeton Lyman is engaged
in shuttle diplomacy, visiting both Juba and Khartoum this week, but the
reality is that the United States has limited capacity to influence events.
Long-standing sanctions against the National Congress Party (NCP) regime in
Khartoum curtail his ability to engage with the northern leadership, but in
any case, NCP has never been inclined to listen to anything the United
States has to say. In theory, the United States has more leverage over the
South, which it backed during the long years of Sudan's civil war and which
it continues to supply with desperately needed economic and technical
support. So it is a matter of considerable frustration and some annoyance to
Washington that Juba shows just as little willingness to listen to US
appeals as do its counterparts in the North. Nevertheless, US pressure on
Juba to moderate its behavior remains the best potential avenue for ending
the crisis. Perhaps Washington would have had more traction with its friends
in South Sudan if it had previously been more forceful in pushing for
responsible governance in return for its economic and diplomatic largesse.
China is perhaps one of the few countries that can wield influence on both
sides of the border. Its investments in the oil industry mean it has an
economic stake in restoring peace. China does not publicize its diplomatic
activity, but it would not be a surprise if Beijing were putting pressure on
Khartoum and Juba behind the scenes. A planned visit to China by President
Salva Kiir of South Sudan later this month may provide an added opportunity.
Q4: Is the fighting likely to have an impact on global oil prices?
A4: Logic would suggest not. As oil producers, the two Sudans are small
players in the overall picture. Of the two countries, South Sudan has 70 to
75 percent of the oil. It was pumping 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) before
shutting off production in January, a move that barely caused a ripple on
world markets. That leaves Sudan, which produces approximately 115,000 bpd.
The Southern occupation of Heglig, its largest oil field, has dented output,
although to what extent is unclear. Heglig was producing 60,000 bpd before
the latest fighting, and officials had previously stated that production
stopped entirely following its seizure. But in a statement on April 18,
Sudan's oil minister said production had only fallen by 40,000 bpd overall
and that some of Heglig's oil had been "diverted." Regardless of the true
figures, the disruption of Sudan's oil production is unlikely to have a
global impact, although its effect on the domestic economy is likely to be
very serious indeed.
_____
For additional reading on this topic please see:
<
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?ots591=0c54
e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233&lng=en&id=142318> Perspectives on the
Sudan, South Sudan Crisis
<
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?ots591=0c54
e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233&lng=en&id=138488> South Sudan:
International State-Building and its Limits
<
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?ots591=0c54
e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233&lng=en&id=140727> Civilian Disarmament in
South Sudan
Generals of South Sudan
<
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en> Creative Commons -
Attribution 2.0 Generic <
http://www.flickr.com/photos/babasteve/5997129940/>
Creative Commons - Attribution 2.0 Generic
Generals of South Sudan's Army
------------[ Sent via the dehai-wn mailing list by dehai.org]--------------
Received on Wed Jun 06 2012 - 13:45:34 EDT
