South Sudan: Despite Ceasefire, a Long Road Ahead in South Sudan
By Hannah Bryce and Ahmed Soliman, 28 January 2014
On 24 January, South Sudan's government and representatives from the
rebellion signed a ceasefire agreement in the Ethiopian capital, Addis
Ababa, with the hope of ending more than a month of fighting. But noticeably
absent from the agreement was a lasting political solution to the
hostilities that addresses the root causes of the conflict.
The manifestation of violence in South Sudan has been shocking in its
ferocity, but the unrest itself was not unexpected. The failure to
substantively attend to the complex melee of elite personalities, ethnicity,
and factionalism which has permeated South Sudanese politics since
independence has led to the current conflict.
Increasing political criticism of President Salva Kiir's leadership from
within the ruling party was met with repeated crackdown rather than
compromise, creating a unified opposition from within, led by former vice
president Riek Machar. Additionally, in under-served rural areas,
disenfranchised youths excluded from the governance of the country, such as
those that constitute the Lou Nuer 'White Army', continued to have few, if
any, opportunities to constructively contribute to their communities.
A chance for inclusion
On the day the ceasefire was signed, President Kiir announced plans to
implement further government reforms. Yet a reshuffle that was meant to
streamline ministries and improve service-delivery took place only recently,
in July 2013. Neither the president nor the agreements reached in Addis so
far have addressed what political future there will be for the former vice
president and the 11 detainees accused of plotting a coup, once they are
released. A political agreement that makes room for increased plurality and
addresses the issue of elite infighting within the ruling party would go a
long way toward preventing an early return to conflict.
Moving forward, the provision of representative governance opportunities -
and at the very least recognizing their absence - offers a more practical
basis on which to build longer-term peace. Progress will require measures
that address both ethnicity and participation, incorporating the concerns of
the many disaffected factions of South Sudanese society into the governing
of the country. The government and its international partners should work
towards building the capacity of local governance and incorporating the
existing complex social structures into the process constructively. This
includes the voices of the marginalized as well as the frustrated male
youths who are willing to fight to be heard.
The increased factionalism evident during the recent fighting and the fact
that the armed forces have swelled from around 50,000 to well over 200,000
since the 2005 peace agreement with Sudan has underscored the need for
streamlining and professionalizing the security sector. The rebellion should
serve as a wake-up call for the government. They now have the opportunity to
implement structures that promote a competent security sector subordinate to
civilian oversight.
The UN role
Operating under the restrictions of Security Council resolutions, the United
Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) treads a delicate diplomatic line
between appeasing the government and fulfilling its Chapter VII mandate. The
resolution empowers UNMISS to 'support the Government of the Republic of
South Sudan in exercising its responsibilities for conflict prevention,
mitigation, and resolution and protect civilians'. Faced with an estimated
half a million displaced and a situation where a significant threat to
civilians comes from government armed forces, UNMISS are in danger of
becoming hamstrung by their need to support the government, and engage, yet
not endorse, the opposition.
Since the conflict began in December, UNMISS have responded by protecting
South Sudanese civilians, 76,000 of whom currently seek shelter in eight UN
camps across the country. UNMISS have a pivotal role in the future of South
Sudan - but the mandate will have to change. Simply increasing the number of
peacekeepers by 5,500 to 12,500, while an understandable short-term measure,
is not enough.
Recent experiences may pose more fundamental questions regarding the UN's
approach to peacekeeping in general and challenge some of the central
concepts that underpin those missions. Nation-building in South Sudan will
challenge concepts like that of good governance, championed by the UN and
the international community, which are proving ineffective and detrimental
to reforming governance in the country because they do not build on existing
structures and customary practices.
Without tackling the underlying causes of the conflict, the recently
brokered peace and any subsequent reconciliation will serve only as a
temporary solution. If prevention is better than cure then accepting this
difficult task may help move the country towards a more sustainable peace.
Hannah Bryce, Manager, International Security
Ahmed Soliman, Research Assistant, Horn of Africa, Africa Programme
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Received on Mon Feb 03 2014 - 17:12:02 EST