Gamal Nkrumah reviews the ramifications of this week's reversal of military
fortunes in South Sudan
Friday,31 January, 2014
Former South Sudan Vice President Riek Machar's troops undertook rites of
spiritual purification, but alas it did not work for them. Machar's men held
their positions as if torpid. Yet, in the end, Bor fell to an unassailable
coalition of Ugandan troops and the South Sudan armed forces of President
Salva Kiir.
It was as if Machar's men were purging their souls of sin in preparation for
death, and indeed many of them did die defending Bor. As Al-Ahram Weekly
goes to press it looks like Machar's battle tricks were foiled.
Facing such a plethora of enemies, especially the leaders of the East
African economic grouping, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development
(IGAD), Machar must realise by now that he cannot fight on every front. His
proactive aggression, selecting strategic oil-rich target towns where ethnic
Nuer - his people - are predominant is his best hope. He is aiming to
overcome his foes in pitched battles.
Oil-rich South Sudan began 2014 in a state of beleaguered penury. Worse, the
humanitarian situation is deplorable. Last Friday, UN human rights fact
finder Ivan Simonovic declared that both government soldiers and rebels had
committed atrocities. And Kiir is a president of a realm that seems bound
for utter destruction. In the fire of the South Sudan crisis, the
long-suffering people of the country are escaping their war-torn abode,
heading north to their former oppressor, Khartoum.
Simonovic told reporters in Juba that there had been cases of "mass
killings, extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detention, enforced
disappearances, sexual violence, widespread destruction and looting of
property and use of the children in conflict". With Machar at the brink of
defeat, the Nuer people are preparing for the worst scenarios. Kiir's men
are swarming over the Nuer so quickly that the latter have little chance of
survival. Except, of course, if they renounce the rousing battle cry of
Machar for good.
Yet, Machar claims that he represents disgruntled groups in South Sudan,
including members of the ruling party, the Sudan People's Liberation
Movement (SPLM). "The American special envoy to South Sudan and Sudan,
Donald Booth, together with IGAD mediators, travelled to an undisclosed
location in South Sudan to meet Machar," read a statement signed by the
self-styled Nuer leader's former press officer Miyong Kuon. With Bor,
capital of Jongolei State, now in SPLM hands and with Bentiu, capital of
oil-rich Unity State, captured by Kiir's men, the situation looks bleak for
Machar.
Machar can no longer stake claim to captured territory. His men would have
to go back to the bush. Corpses of the dead, civilian and military, pepper
the countryside. Even so, in this moment of crisis, troops loyal to Machar
are not daunted by the sheer scale of their imminent defeat.
South Sudan is in a parlous state of disarray. Machar's men are on the
retreat, but their tactical retreat is informed by a vein of strategic
planning. Riven by power struggles, Kiir's SPLM is not a particularly
formidable force.
With resistance to the SPLM crumbling, Machar's men are straining to release
two months of pent-up frustration and aggression. Amid the gloom of an
approaching disaster, the chaotic slaughter appears to have begun.
With provincial strongholds of Machar's troops overrun, a bloody sack is
expected to follow in the days to come. Machar got his first despairing
glimpse of his terrible loss on the horizon in both Bor and Bentiu. Malakal
still hangs in the balance.
Kiir's successes on the battlefield broke the tide of Machar's martial
momentum that has been building since December 2013.
Nevertheless, the tremendous work of unifying South Sudan through the
subjugation of his adversaries, including Machar, remains hopelessly
incomplete. Kiir's victory over the forces of Machar has not been absolute.
In the aftermath of the triumph of the Kiir camp, the door stands open to
further political and military success. The huge loss of manpower in the
past week left Machar's men in a state of extreme vulnerability. Their
strongholds have been stripped of their garrisons.
Machar is now confronted with a momentous choice. Much of South Sudan's
countryside has been subjugated by Kiir's forces, but as the dry season
wanes it will become apparent that one or more final pushes towards conquest
would be necessary before the onset of the rainy season when Machar's men
might emerge from the jungle.
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Received on Thu Jan 30 2014 - 17:37:57 EST