Recent events have made Libya look even more politically unstable, writes
Gamal Nkrumah
22-09-2013 07:57PM ET
It seems that the post-Muammar Gaddafi Libyan authorities might as well
start cherry picking, with tribal infighting and the proliferation of
militant Islamist militias having become an apparently permanent fixture of
the country.
This week, members of two rival tribes in the remote, albeit strategic, town
of Derj, 550km southwest of the Libyan capital, Tripoli, and close to the
oil and natural gas installations on the Algerian border, left 11 people
dead in a local conflict. This is the same area where Islamist terrorists
kidnapped foreign and local oil workers and personnel in neighbouring In
Amenas in Algeria some months ago.
According to the Libyan authorities, the tribal fighting erupted late on
Thursday between border guards from the western tribe of Zintan and Garamna
tribesmen. The clashes resulted in residents of Derj fleeing across the
porous border into neighbouring Algeria, as Zintan border guards set fire to
the houses of the rival Garamna tribe.
Under former Libyan leader Gaddafi, deep-rooted tribal animosities were kept
in check. Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan hinted at military action this
week in response to the current violence, which many Libyans have warned
could spark wider unrest in the North African country riven by tribal and
regional divisions.
The tribal fighting is exacerbated by crippling oil output stoppages and a
substantial reduction in oil and gas production, due to the general state of
insecurity in the country.
"I am not threatening, but I won't let anyone hold Libya and its resources
hostage to the irresponsible acts of these groups," Zeidan was quoted as
saying. "These people must understand what they are doing, so that when
action takes place, everyone will understand why. However, I hope we won't
be forced to do something that we don't want to do," he said.
Observers believe that Zeidan's comments are mainly empty threats. The
Libyan army has little clout, and the militias effectively control the
country. The disruptions in oil production and the stoppages in the west of
Libya have been instigated mainly by the powerful Zintan tribal militias.
Moreover, these militias and tribal elders have emerged as major political
groupings in post-Gaddafi Libya, becoming influential within Libyan
government army units and ready to flex their muscles for a larger political
role.
The Zintan tribal militias are now bargaining for higher allowances and a
bigger stake in guarding the oil installations. Last month, the Zintan
militias closed down two major oil fields in the south, Al-Feel and Esshara,
disrupting at least 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production, or nearly a
third of Libya's Gaddafi-period production levels of around 1.5 million bpd.
In the coastal eastern part of Libya, where protesters from the oil sector
are disrupting oil terminals, more trouble is brewing. The proliferation of
weapons in the country coupled with demands for more pay for oil workers
have now extended to broader political demands connected to a bigger share
of Libya's oil wealth and possible self-government for the major
oil-producing eastern region of Cyrenaica.
In a burst of regionalism, hardliners among the federalists in Cyrenaica
demanded this week the creation of an independent national oil firm that
would be in charge of oil and natural gas exports.
The Libyan authorities have been at a loss as to what to do, and oil
production now averages between 200,000 to 300,000 bpd, Zeidan told
reporters in Tripoli.
The Libyan authorities appear to be toothless in the face of the
disturbances, though Zeidan, in a bid to calm the situation, revealed that
he was awaiting the recommendations of a fact-finding mission conducted by a
13-member crisis committee set up by the Libyan legislature to find a way
out of the crisis.
The committee is headed by Abdel-Wahab Al-Qayed, and it has had difficulty
communicating with the militias. Al-Qayed told Libyan parliamentarians last
Tuesday that the committee had not arrived at a deal with the protesters,
but added that it had won the approval of the General National Council, the
Libyan parliament, for another week's extension to conclude the task.
Meanwhile, Libya's Finance Minister Al-Kilani Abdel-Karim Al-Jazi told
reporters that his ministry had calculated the oil stoppages were depriving
the country of at least $130 million a day in lost revenues.
Neighbouring countries and Libya's Western allies have only the haziest idea
of the tensions in the beleaguered nation. Al-Jazi warned that a prolonged
crisis could force Libya to draw on its substantial foreign reserves over
the next few months, but he stated that he did not foresee any serious
problems with meeting the country's financial obligations, including the
salaries of government employees, at least until the end of the year.
Others dispute Al-Jazi's optimism, however. Complicating the picture is the
threat of militant Islamist Mohamed Sawan, who heads the Islamist Justice
and Construction Party (JCP), the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood, and the second
biggest in Libya's legislature.
Sawan has recently disclosed that the JCP is considering withdrawing its
five ministers from Zeidan's cabinet, including the oil minister.
Zeidan, a liberal who was elected last October, has seen the pressure piling
up on him by Islamists and independents displeased at his handling of an
unprecedented wave of strikes by oil workers and armed guards that has
paralysed the country's oil production and led to billions of dollars in
lost revenues.
Sawan said there was growing support within the 200-member assembly for a
vote of no confidence in Zeidan's government.
"We have waited months for Zeidan's government to act," Sawan was quoted as
telling Reuters. "Had we believed there was a chance for success of even 10
per cent, we would have been patient. The problem is that for Zeidan to stay
in power will only worsen the crisis," he said.
Libya's current political and security problems have been accentuated by
electricity and water shortages that have increased daily hardships for
ordinary Libyans, many of whom now regret the toppling and brutal
assassination of Gaddafi.
The political messages embedded in this shift of opinion in Libya have been
made all the more clear because Zeidan has been a favourite of the liberal
rivals of the JCP and the other Islamist factions.
The JCP reluctantly agreed to join his cabinet in a concession to popular
demands for a broad-based consensus government. Now, however, it seems that
Libya may be destined to be catapulted into even more destructive chaos.
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Received on Sun Sep 22 2013 - 16:16:27 EDT