Somalia: Understanding the Jubba Agreement
September 8, 2013
_____
Anyone who follows the plight of Somalia should be elated by the news of
Somali groups reaching an agreement on their differences. But the
<
http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2013/Aug/40895/agreement_between_the_federal_g
overnment_of_somalia_and_jubba_delegation.aspx> Interim Jubba Administration
Agreement (IJAA), signed between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and
Jubba Delegation (JD) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on August 27, 2013,
perpetuates the usual pattern of creating the false impression of
incremental progress while practically weakening the foundation for
establishing a credible and sustainable government in Somalia. The IJAA
seems to establishing a governing structure in the regions of Lower Jubba,
Middle Jubba and Gedo of Somalia but it makes fait accompli the political
nightmare of clan satellites federalism in Somalia. For example Professor
Michael Weinstein
<file:///C:\Users\warsame\Downloads\Somalia%20Understanding%20the%20Jubba%20
Agreement.doc#_ftn1> [1] believes that IJAA sets the stage for a 'political
trench warfare' which could be a desired aim.
The IJAA, drafted in the Foreign Ministry of Ethiopia which is a guarantor,
is not a reconciliation or political document. It is an executive document
not supported by prior political and legislative act. The IJAA expands the
territories outside the influence of the federal government like Puntland,
Somaliland, Galmudug, Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama (ASWJ) and Al Shabab controlled
Territories so that the FGS looks confined in Mogadishu and dependent on
foreign forces without qualification. The consensus is that IJAA signed
under external pressure would deepen the fragmentation process of Somalia.
The background of Jubbaland scheme, renamed Interim Jubba Administration
(IJA) and the difference between the goals of the two signatories explain
well the explicit and implicit problems associated with the IJAA. Let's
recap these two points before examining the IJAA content in detail.
Jubbaland scheme
Apart from the clan fervor element, the Jubbaland scheme has been designed
and directed by Kenya and Ethiopia for their foreign policy agenda at the
expense of Somalia. Despite the Somali people agreed without ambiguity to
postpone the decision on the form of federalism suitable for Somalia and on
the creation of Federal Member States (FMS), Kenya and Ethiopia went ahead
with their May 2012 decision to establish of Jubbaland State. Both countries
claimed that they want to deal with and depend on Jubbaland State instead of
Somali State. This is deliberate sabotage of the sovereignty, unity,
political independence and territorial integrity of Somalia.
The scheme started with the mobilization of Raskamboni Militia from members
of Ogaden clan to support the invasion of Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) into
Somalia under the military campaign against the terror group Al Shabab.
Financially and diplomatically, the scheme has been supported by powerful
international donors and oil corporations.
Following the capture of the seaport town of Kismaio, Kenya and Ethiopia
coached former Al Shabab commander and leader of Raskamboni Militia Ahmed
Mohamed Islan (Ahmed Madobe) to organize a controlled political process to
form the Jubbaland State without minimum consideration to the governing
leadership authority of the FGS. The process has put into motion an
acrimonious clan competition among communities in the area.
Correctly, the FGS called for the suspension of the process on
constitutional and public policy grounds and alternatively offered a
stabilization plan for all areas liberated from Al Shabab. Kenya and
Ethiopia rebuffed the FGS plan and pushed for the proclamation of Ahmed
Madobe as President of Jubbaland State instantly recognized by Kenya and
Ethiopia. As gesture of humiliation, President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya and
his foreign minister welcomed a delegation from Puntland-cum-Jubbaland at
the State House and published a photo op.
In Kismaio, Ahmed Madobe's presidential claim triggered leadership dispute
which led to armed confrontations between clan factions causing high number
of deaths and injuries, destruction of properties and displacement of entire
communities. Raskamboni Militia had the upper hand because of KDF direct
participation in the fighting. The security situation in the area has
dramatically deteriorated.
The FGS declared the outcome of Jubbaland process as "unconstitutional." It
also made a strong public protest against KDF for its actions contrary to
the mandate and rules of engagement as member of the forces of the African
Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).
In retaliation, the FGS has been subjected to a sustained media propaganda
campaign and constant diplomatic ambushes and pressures by influential
international actors. Nevertheless, the FGS showed reasonable resistance
before the surprise Addis Ababa talks which led to the conclusion of IJAA.
The Addis Ababa talks took place few days after the first meeting of the
Heads of States and Governments of the Troop Contributing Countries (TCC) to
AMISOM held in Kampala, Uganda. It is not clear if the FGS conducted
effective internal deliberations before it decided to abruptly change its
original position which had widespread public support. In fact The Federal
Government's new strategy has worsened the political conflict rather than
improving.
Difference between signatories
As outlined in the provisional constitution (PC) which has reconstituted or
stitched together Somalia as a country, the FGS represents the people of
Somalia with the mission of establishing a functional integrated Somali
State structure at national, regional and local levels in line with the
internationally endorsed "New Deal" framework for fragile States. The
mission's goals are unity, security, peace, recovery, and development
through a well-defined political and legal framework.
The Jubba Delegation (JD) represents the supporters of Raskamboni Militia
controlled by Kenya and Ethiopia. The Raskamboni Militia is not a rebel
movement with nationalistic agenda. Therefore, JD's goals are to honor the
interests of its foreign backers, reward Raskamboni Militia members and
remain independent from others including a central authority.
The IJAA realizes JD's goals and thwarts FGS's goals. The internationally
sponsored talks in Addis Ababa were a political suicide for the FGS. The
preferable option was either to encourage and supervise a dialogue between
the communities in the Jubba and Gedo regions or to engage the talks as
governed and governing parties similar to the case of Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama
(ASWJ) or to declare the Raskamboni Militia illegal. The negotiation with
groups or militia controlled by neighbor country (s) like Raskamboni in
Somalia as the M23 in Congo is ill-advised.
Interim Jubba Administration Agreement
The preamble of IJAA subjects the provisional constitution to IGAD
directives so that Somalia remains captive of IGAD and all international
efforts for statebuilding fall apart. IGAD ignores practically the profusely
invoked principles of leadership of the federal government and respect of
the provisional constitution. IJAA contravenes the constitutional
sequencing, principles and powers related to the federation process.
Article one of IJAA formally recognizes the existence of Jubbaland State as
an Interim Jubba Administration (IJA) without legal basis. The IJA will
automatically act as an autonomous State controlling and managing
independently the domestic and international resources and infrastructures
claimed by Jubba and Gedo regions. The application of clause 8 of article
one concerning the parliamentary approval of the rules and regulations
governing IJA is impractical because it is conditioned on the completion of
the constitutional review process.
Articles two and three of IJAA appeases Kenya and nullifies the clean-cut
sovereign
<
http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2013/Aug/30625/communiqu%C3%A9_meeting_of_the_
heads_of_state_and_government_of_the_troop_contributing_countries_of_amisom.
aspx> decisions on Kismaio seaport and airport under KDF control, on the
integration of Raskamboni Militia into Somali National Army (SNA) and on the
deployment of mixed AMISOM forces in Kismaio agreed upon by the TCC to
AMISOM. Clause 15 of Article 2 extends indefinitely the two year term and
denies the seaport and airport transfer after six months because it
stipulates that "the interim arrangement shall continue until there is a
final agreement on revenue sharing in the country as per the constitutional
process."
Article four which delegates the federal government to organize and convene
in two weeks time a reconciliation conference in Mogadishu followed by
another one in Kismaio a charade. Both conferences are consultative (not
deliberative) bodies to force the implementation of IJAA. It is more likely
that changes or amendments to the IJAA by the participants of Mogadishu or
Kismaio conferences will not be accepted by the allied IJA leader and
Ethiopia. Clause 21 of Article four is a major constitutional violation
because it transfers the responsibility to develop the roadmap for the
establishment of FMS, which the constitution invests in the federal
parliament, to Mogadishu conference on IJA.
The Federal Government can claim as achievements the measures of
accountability of the IJA leader to the federal government, the consultation
of the IJA leader with the federal government on appointing his deputies and
regional governors, the responsibility to assure inclusivity, and the
approval of rules and regulations governing the IJA by the federal
parliament. The fact remains that as long as the federal constitution is not
finalized and federal laws are not issued, IJA will remain exonerated from
any accountability to and consultation with the federal government.
IJAA is a bad deal for the people of Somalia because it violates the PC,
delegitimizes the FGS-executive and parliament and creates clan satellites
controlled by foreign powers. Clearly, the IJAA multiplies the confusions
and booby-traps stuffed in the PC so that political crisis and paralysis are
inescapable. It could be soon when IJA, Somaliland, Al Shabab, ASWJ,
Ethiopia, Kenya, Puntland and other opposition forces aided by international
expert lords share a same platform for accusing the federal government for
all sorts of problems and misdeeds without factual analysis and reasons.
Therefore, it is incumbent upon the Federal Parliament to annul the IJAA so
that its negative consequences are avoided for the best interest of the
people of Somalia. Otherwise, Somalia will transition from a failed state to
clan satellites prey to various predators.
Mr. Mohamud M Uluso
mohamuduluso_at_gmail.com
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Received on Sun Sep 08 2013 - 18:25:13 EDT