The fate of Abyei, due to be decided in an October referendum, could tip the
balance towards either conflict or cooperation between Sudan and South
Sudan, writes Salah Khalil
28-08-2013 02:07PM ET
The oil-rich region of Abyei, hotly disputed by Sudan and South Sudan, is
likely to surface on the international scene as the date of a
self-determination referendum due in October approaches. Khartoum has been
trying to postpone that date, which had been proposed by the African Union,
but Juba is putting its foot down.
In preparation for the referendum, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has
given government officials from Abyei time off, so they may go home and get
ready for the vote. Khartoum, incensed by the move, called it illegal and
destructive.
At the heart of the dispute is the rivalry between two tribes, the Messeria
who are loyal to Khartoum, and the Dinka Ngok who are loyal to Juba.
The Messeria disapprove of the referendum. They say that it cannot possibly
be held and that it is being used as a bargaining chip in relations between
Sudan and South Sudan. The referendum, Messeria leaders claim, is but an
attempt to allow South Sudan to control the executive and legislative
branches of the Abyei local government.
According to Messiria leaders, Abyei belongs to Sudan, and Khartoum must not
allow a referendum to be held there.
The Dinka Ngok holds a diametrically opposed view, and it has fought the
Messeria over the issue in the past. If the two tribes go to war again, the
consequences could be devastating for their respective allies in Khartoum
and Juba.
According to articles 41 and 42 of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)
Sudan and southern leaders signed in 2005, the region of Abyei must undergo
a referendum before its civil administration is set up.
For the referendum to take place, a special commission must be created to
decide on the time and modalities of the referendum. Easier said than done.
First of all, there is no official registry of voters, nor a definition of
who is a resident of Abyei. The residency requirements were left to the
commission to decide, so are the criteria for determining the original
inhabitants of Abyei. Such thorny issues have not yet been addressed.
The agro-pastoral tribes of the Messiria and Dinka Ngok are known to have
historical claims on the area.
The referendum law gives the Dinka Ngok the right to vote, but deprives the
Messiria of the same right. The Messiria fear that if Abyei becomes a part
of Bahr Al-Ghazal in South Sudan, which is one of the options of the said
referendum, they will be denied access to their ancestral land.
Abyei can, at least theoretically, decide to remain part of the South
Kordofan province of Sudan. This would suit the Messeria well, but it
doesn't seem to be a likely outcome for now.
The Abyei problem intersects with that of the international borders between
Sudan and South Sudan. The 2,000 kilometre long border between Sudan and
South Sudan has not yet been drawn.
Unless a solution is found for Abyei that is acceptable to both the Dinka
Ngok and the Messiria tribes, both Khartoum and Juba may find themselves
faced with a bloody and unpredictable confrontation.
For now, it is not even clear if a referendum over Abyei can be arranged. If
a vote is held now, the outcome will depend on the machinations of both
Khartoum and Juba, as well as the influence of the foreign powers involved.
Presidents Omar Al-Bashir and Salva Kiir, who are due to meet in late August
in Khartoum, are in a position to put this issue to rest, perhaps as part of
a comprehensive deal involving borders, oil, and other unresolved matters.
They have good reason to do so. Both Al-Bashir and Kiir have a host of
domestic issues to address, including insurgencies at home.
If the two leaders decide that they have more to gain from reconciliation
than from hostility, Abyei may turn into a prosperous, multiethnic
powerhouse. If goodwill, and self-interest, is summoned on both sides,
Khartoum and Juba may be able to reverse their ailing fortunes.
For example, Al-Bashir and Kiir may decide to grant the residents of Abyei
dual nationality. Not only could such a measure defuse growing tensions
between the Messiria and the Dinka Ngok, it may open the way to a genuine
era of cooperation between Khartoum and Juba.
------------[ Sent via the dehai-wn mailing list by dehai.org]--------------
Received on Fri Aug 30 2013 - 18:48:14 EDT