Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2013 22:55:12 +0200
Ethiopia's Muslim Activists Pave a Path for Nonviolent Political Activism
By Terrence Lyons,
<http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13177/ethiopia-s-muslim-activis
ts-pave-a-pathfor-nonviolent-political-activism> World Politics Review
August 22, 2013
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A year after Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn came to power
following the death of longtime leader Meles Zenawi in August 2012, the
ruling Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) remains
firmly in control. It has continued to govern through a collective
leadership that includes three deputy prime ministers from the Amhara,
Tigray and Oromo wings of the coalition; Hailemariam hails from the Southern
People's Party. Party discipline and coherence has held, although the
lead-up to elections in 2015 may reveal destabilizing fissures. But while
older opposition parties and armed movements have been marginalized, a
social movement of Ethiopian Muslims is an important new development.
Rapid economic growth has been key to Ethiopia's stability. The economy grew
by more than 10 percent annually over the past decade, and while growth has
slowed down it remains higher than the African average. Recent data,
however, suggest that earnings from coffee and gold, Ethiopia's two largest
sources of export revenues, have declined. The World Bank also raised
concerns that Ethiopia's boom has relied too heavily upon public investment
and that sustained growth will require a significant increase in private
investment.
The political opposition to the EPRDF currently divided into camps based on
whether they subscribe to ethno-national or pan-Ethiopian goals and whether
they operate in exile or have remained in the country has struggled to find
channels to influence Ethiopian politics. After competitive elections in
2005 and the subsequent crisis that led to the arrest of much of the
opposition leadership and the collapse of the main opposition coalitions,
the regime effectively criminalized dissent. Restrictions on independent
media and civil society limit the ability of Ethiopians to mobilize outside
of the structures of the ruling party. The EPRDF's dominance was evident in
local elections this year, in which it and its affiliated parties won all
but one seat nationwide.
As a result, opposition political parties that challenged the regime in 2005
now play virtually no role in national politics. The Semayawi, or Blue,
party organized a notable demonstration in June and has some following among
the youth, but its potential to challenge the regime is limited. Berhanu
Nega, a politician who had considerable influence in 2005, is now operating
in exile without a significant presence in the country. Repression and the
use of anti-terrorism laws, as well as weak structures and leadership, limit
the opposition's ability to operate within Ethiopia.
Meanwhile, several groups, notably the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the
Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), remain engaged in protracted armed
struggles, but Addis Ababa has effectively managed these military
challenges. Oromo nationalism remains potent, but the OLF leadership is
divided and discredited. Promising talks between the ONLF and Addis Ababa
collapsed in October 2012, but there are officials on both sides that see
advantages from a negotiated settlement. The government would like to end
the war in order to concentrate on development of the region's natural gas
and other resources. Some Ogadenis recognize that they are unlikely to win
the military contest and wish to end the ferocious counterinsurgency
campaign in the region. But reaching a durable agreement, a recent
International Crisis Group report accurately notes, will require
unprecedented concessions from both sides.
Finally, the ongoing demonstrations by Ethiopian Muslims, who make up
approximately 40 percent of the country, provide an important model of
politics outside of the ruling party that relies upon neither armed struggle
nor the strategies of electoral competition on a hopelessly lopsided playing
field. The demonstrations began 18 months ago to protest government
interference in Islamic affairs and the regime's links to the Ethiopian
Islamic Affairs Supreme Council. The movement has been extraordinarily
disciplined and nonviolent and has succeeded in part by focusing on a
specific set of issues. Demonstrations have been held after Friday prayers
in Addis Ababa but also notably in other towns across Ethiopia.
Muslim activists emphasize that they are operating within the framework of
the Ethiopian constitution and that they are not seeking to overthrow the
regime. The Ethiopian government, in contrast, has consistently claimed that
the protests were organized by extremists bankrolled from overseas and
seeking to establish an Islamist state. More recently Addis Ababa has
identified neighboring Eritrea as the source of this alleged external
support. The movement's leadership was arrested July 2012 and charged with
terrorism in October.
Earlier this month there were clashes between Ethiopian security forces and
Muslims reportedly following the arrests of three local imams in Kofele, a
town in the Oromo region. A heavy police presence and arrests in Addis Ababa
following the Eid al-Fitr ceremonies celebrating the end of Ramadan on Aug.
8 further raised the temperature and tensions. Government spokesman Shimeles
Kemal alleged that the arrests were of Salafist elements who tried to create
disturbances.
Despite the government's arrests and condemnations, the Ethiopian Muslim
demonstrators have shown that sustained, nonviolent political activism is
possible in Ethiopia. What is not clear, however, is the movement's future.
Many leaders in the older ethno-nationalist movements, including those with
large Muslim constituencies, such as the Oromo and Somali, view the
multiethnic nature of the movement with trepidation. Others, including
leaders in the Semayawi party, view it as a vehicle to advance pan-Ethiopian
political ideas. Some Muslim activists propose a strategy of sustained
low-level protest that avoids confrontation and recognize that a quick
victory is impossible. To move more assertively would spark a military
crackdown, and the movement's leadership is likely to lose control if there
is violence. The key dynamics to watch in the lead-up to elections in 2015
are therefore competition within the ruling party and the potential for the
Ethiopian Muslim movement to create new space for political activism.
--- Terrence Lyons is associate professor of Conflict Analysis and Resolution and co-director of the Center for Global Studies, George Mason University. http://www.ethiomedia.com/assign/anwar_mosque.jpg The Grand Anwar Mosque in Addis - Often a site of peaceful Muslim protests
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