Somalia: In Kismayo, Fragile Peace or a Gathering Storm?
19 August 2013
Analysis
Kismayo/Nairobi — When bullets tore through the streets of Kismayo in June,
leaving over 70 dead as rival militias twice fought for control of the
Somali port city, many international aid agencies halted a cautious scale-up
of activities.
One of the few to stay was the World Health Organization (WHO).
"For us, conflict means casualties. We are doctors; we have to be there,"
Omar Saleh, WHO Somalia's emergency health coordinator, told IRIN.
But for most international organizations - many of which had just returned
to Kismayo after militant Islamists Al-Shabab were driven out late last year
- the June violence proved too dangerous.
As stability returned through July, activities slowly resumed. Still, the
political and security crises that fuelled the fighting are at risk of
deepening.
Jubaland issue
The recent disputes over
<
http://www.irinnews.org/report/97860/briefing-somalia-federalism-and-jubala
nd> Jubaland, a state-within-a-state whose leadership and borders are not
recognized by the administration in Mogadishu, constitute a test of federal
principles outlined in Somalia's provisional constitution. The central
government also seeks control of and revenue from Kismayo, Jubaland's de
facto capital.
Jubaland, which, in its maximum extent, is considered to include the regions
of Gedo and Lower and Middle Juba, has 87,000sqkm of mainly fertile land and
some 1.3 million people of many different clan allegiances.
The Jubaland issue is also complicating relations between the central
government in Mogadishu, regional powers Kenya and Ethiopia, and the African
Union (AU) mission in Somalia (AMISOM). And with key players in Kismayo
temporarily distracted, the crisis could be giving Al-Shabab a much-needed
breather to regroup.
These developments threaten gains made this year by aid agencies and risk
extending an already complex humanitarian situation in the city, where
60,000 people are in need of aid, according to estimates by the UN Office
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
"Whenever territory is taken by military operations, there is at least a
temporary lag setting up a functioning administration. This hampers the
ability of humanitarians to access people in need," Philippe Lazzarini, the
UN's top humanitarian official for Somalia, told IRIN.
"The change in power can stoke insecurity rooted in competition among rival
factions, as we saw in Kismayo and the Juba regions," he added.
Many years under pressure
For several years, Kismayo, 200km north of the Kenyan border, was a key
stronghold and source of income for Al-Shabab. The militants took control of
the city in August 2008, after defeating the militia of Barre Adan Shire
(widely known as Hiiraale), and remained in control of it until their defeat
in <
http://www.irinnews.org/report/96362/somalia-principles-and-pragmatism>
September 2012.
Kismayo was a key target in AMISOM's operation against Al-Shabab - the
militants controlled the lucrative charcoal trade out of the port and also
taxed imported goods.
While civilians report some stability during Al-Shabab's control of the
city, there were also limited livelihood opportunities, and access to
education and healthcare was often difficult. Al-Shabab also banned polio
vaccination in Kismayo and elsewhere in south-central Somalia, and according
to reports, the group forcibly taxed and recruited the city's residents.
"Conditions for the population were so precarious under Al-Shabab," Soldan
Haji Aden, director of the Alikar Center for Peace, Human Rights and
Democracy in Kismayo, told IRIN. "Residents and internally displaced persons
[IDPs] who came to Kismayo could not find healthcare, water, food, shelter
or some kind of livelihood."
Kismayo and the surrounding region were also hit hard by the 2011 food
crisis. While famine was not declared in Lower Juba, the situation was
classified a humanitarian emergency. Many of those displaced by the food
crisis crossed the border to go to the
<
http://www.irinnews.org/report/93332/kenya-somalia-red-tape-adds-to-refugee
-woes-in-dadaab> Dadaab refugee camps in Kenya, but tens of thousands of
people
<
http://www.irinnews.org/report/94507/somalia-kismayo-idps-face-hunger-drug-
shortages> fled to Kismayo, where many other IDPs have gathered since the
early 1990s.
"When Al-Shabab controlled Kismayo, it was very difficult to get food to
feed my family," Fadumo el Moge, a mother of five in Kismayo, told IRIN.
"There was no work and Al-Shabab controlled the city and stopped
humanitarian assistance. I had to rely on support from my family abroad."
Glimmer of hope, but serious problems
Kenyan and Somali troops - the former mostly operating as part of the AU
mission - attacked Kismayo in September 2012. Supported by local militia Ras
Kamboni, the mixed force launched a combined ground, air and naval assault
on 28 September and quickly ousted the militants from their last major urban
stronghold.
While there remain major concerns about access and security, UN agencies and
NGOs have launched or extended a variety of programmes, directly or through
partners. Several have sent in short missions involving international staff,
and humanitarian needs assessments have also been carried out.
"The challenges in Kismayo largely mirror those found throughout southern
and central Somalia," Lazzarini - who made his first visit to Kismayo as
Humanitarian Coordinator in July 2013 - told IRIN. "People lack sufficient
health services. They need clean water, sanitation services and education."
Key humanitarian risks include the possibility of a polio outbreak taking
hold given the long ban on vaccination, the spread of waterborne and
infectious diseases within densely populated urban areas and IDP camps, and
the ongoing threat of conflict in the city and beyond.
"The situation in Kismayo is better than before," said Saleh of WHO, which
is running polio vaccination and emergency surgery programmes. "But there
are major problems. Kismayo Hospital needs total renovation. We need to
establish long logistic lines for supplies and medicine and build up the
people who are there after so much capacity has been lost. We are
progressing, however, slowly but surely."
The World Food Programme (WFP) launched two basic programmes in January
through local partners: wet feeding at five centres, reaching about 15,000
people each day, and a nutrition programme to treat high levels of
malnutrition among women and young children.
Médécins Sans Frontières - which withdrew from Kismayo in 2008 after the
murder of three staff members - was also active in the city, but it recently
<
http://www.msf.org/article243/msf-forced-close-all-medical-programmes-somal
ia> announced plans to close all of its Somalia programmes due to "extreme
attacks" on its staff. A number of other agencies are present, but are
reluctant to share details of their operations.
Recent setbacks
Kismayo's uneasy peace was shattered in June, when fighting broke out
between rival militias laying claim to the presidency of Jubaland. The
violence underscored the fragility of Kismayo's early recovery and the
dangers that remain.
"The tensions have been a setback - in particular, the fighting on 28-30
June, which resulted in more than 70 deaths and hundreds of civilian
casualties," said Lazzarini.
Clashes first broke out in early June and then again at the end of the
month, with rival factions battling for control of the city. WHO reported a
44 percent rise in weapons-related injuries in Kismayo in June. The fighting
pitted Ahmed Mohamed Islam "Madobe" - who was elected president of Jubaland
in May by a conference of clan representatives - and his Ras Kamboni militia
against other figures who also declared themselves leaders of the region.
Human Rights Watch criticized the militias for disregarding the safety of
civilians, while a leaked letter from Somali Foreign Minister Fawzia Yusuf
to the AU accused the Kenyan military of backing Ras Kamboni in the June
clashes and of using heavy weapons in civilian areas. Analysts say Kenya has
been encouraging the creation of Jubaland, which could act as a buffer zone
on its northern border.
On 4 August 2013, in Uganda's capital, Kampala, regional heads of state
decided in a communique that control of Kismayo's airport and seaport should
be handed back to the Federal Government - backing Mogadishu against Madobe.
But the violence had already taken its toll. A critical polio vaccination
campaign, which targeted tens of thousands of at-risk children, was halted.
Although the effort was restarted in July, the delay is concerning given the
100 cases of polio confirmed in Somalia in 2013.
WFP's food distribution activities were also disrupted, threatening recent
gains in food security since the 2011 crisis. "The port has largely been
inaccessible, so for essentially two months we couldn't get food there,"
Challiss McDonough, WFP's spokesperson, told IRIN. "We did an exchange with
another organization but had to suspend cooked meals in late July. We are in
the process of getting more food there and hope to be able to resume by
mid-August."
The instability in Kismayo also threatens hopes of early refugee
repatriation from Kenya. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), some
96,000 refugees in Dadaab - representing over 35 percent of the camp's
population - have origins in Lower Juba and are unlikely to agree to any
negotiated return while significant violence still threatens the region's
capital and civilian population.
Despite the negative humanitarian outlook following June's violence, some
agencies remain upbeat.
"The local authorities told me that they are ready to ensure the security of
humanitarian workers," said Lazzarini. "We are redeploying staff... We will
continue to work hard to scale-up our activities, not only in Kismayo but
throughout southern Somalia."
But as MSF's recent withdrawal from the country demonstrates, the conditions
for humanitarian activity in Kismayo and elsewhere will likely remain
precarious for some time.
OCHA recognises that the situation in the city "remains tense", and as MSF's
recent withdrawal from the country demonstrates, the conditions for
humanitarian activity in Kismayo and elsewhere will likely remain precarious
for some time
Timeline of “Jubaland” disputes
2009-2010 - First discussions of the “Jubaland Initiative”, with local
elites and, in part, Kenya identified as the key proponents of the plan to
train anti-Al-Shabab militia and establish a regional administration in
areas of Somalia bordering Kenya.
April 2011 - Former Somali Defence Minister Mohamed Abdi Mohamed forms
Azania group, and is declared president of Azania, another term for the
Jubaland region.
October 2011 - Kenya launches incursion into Somalia - Operation Linda Nchi
- deploying some 2,000 troops across the border.
May 2012 - Nairobi-based talks charge 32-member technical committee with
establishing a Jubaland administration.
August 2012 - Internationally recognized federal administration replaces
Transitional Federal Government, not long after constituent assembly backs
provisional constitution that outlines federal principles.
August 2012 - Internationally recognized federal administration replaces
Transitional Federal Government, not long after constituent assembly backs
provisional constitution that outlines federal principles.
September 2012 - Kenyan and Somali troops - partly operating under AMISOM
umbrella - seize control of Kismayo from Al-Shabab, with support from the
Ras Kamboni militia.
February 2013 - First Jubaland conference held in Kismayo; flag and
three-year constitution adopted.
May 2013 - 500-strong conference of clan elders and local leaders elect
former warlord and leader of Ras Kamboni militia Ahmed Madobe as “president”
of Jubaland, a move opposed by the central government in Mogadishu.
Following separate conference, former warlord and Defence Minister Col Barre
Hiraale also declares himself “president” of the region. Violent clashes
subsequently break out in streets of Kismayo.
July 2013 - Letter from Somali foreign minister to African Union leaked,
describing “incompetence” of Kenyans and calling for deployment of
“multinational” AU force to the city.
August 2013 - Communiqué issued by regional leaders at Kampala Summit
demands that control of Kismayo’s airport and seaport be handed back to the
federal government.
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Received on Mon Aug 19 2013 - 21:22:43 EDT