President Kiir's new cabinet suggests he is trying to reassure the
population as well as foreign oil investors.
On 31 July, President Salva Kiir of South Sudan announced a new cabinet,
following its dissolution on 23 July. The dissolution had included the
dismissing of key rival Vice-President Riek Machar and suspending the
Secretary-General of the ruling SPLM party, Pagan Amum Okiech.
Following the dismissals, Kiir stated he would form an inclusive government,
which was demonstrated by his appointment of key leaders from groups outside
the normal ruling SPLM party structure, notably representatives from the
Dinka Bor and Nuer ethnic groups. These appointments demonstrated Kiir's
desire to reassure the population as well as investors; for example,
Petroleum Minister Stephen Dhieu Dau was reinstated to his position. In the
three-month outlook, Kiir is likely to focus on overcoming divisions within
the SPLM, as well as restoring the economy.
The Sudanese government meanwhile has threatened to block oil pipelines from
22 August, pending an African Union investigation into Sudan's allegation
that the South is supporting anti-government rebels in the North. However,
on 31 July, Sudanese presidential aide, Nafie Ali Nafie, announced that a
security agreement had been reached, claiming that the South Sudanese
government had agreed to halt support to three rebel leaders. Both countries
are equally dependent on oil; however, security issues, namely disputes over
the status of Abyei and border demarcation, present triggers for further
disruptions to oil flow until they are resolved, which is unlikely in the
one-year outlook.
In order to reassert control of the economy, notably the oil sector that
prior to shutdown in January 2012 accounted for 98% of government revenue,
Kiir is likely to launch corruption probes and contract renegotiations into
firms that were seen as close to Machar and his allies. This would likely
include the September 2012 division of Block B, Jonglei state, and the
consequent licensing talks.
The new cabinet appointments include a number of key Nuer and Dinka Bor
leaders, namely Riek Gai Kok and Abdalla Deng Nhial, respectively, which is
likely an attempt to neutralise the support base of Machar and Amum,
respectively. The predominantly rural population tends to vote along
parochial lines, supporting well-known leaders from their ethnic groups.
Kiir's preoccupation with reuniting the party is likely to cause delays to
the passage of key legislation, including the budget and the Petroleum
Revenue Management Bill, within the three-month outlook.
Exclusive Analysis, recently acquired by IHS (NYSE: IHS) is a specialist
intelligence company that forecasts commercially relevant political and
violent risks worldwide. They leverage their source network and methodology
to produce accurate and actionable forecasts. Their global network of 200
expert analysts and 1,000 sources reports risk-relevant, specialist
information to their core London-based team.
------------[ Sent via the dehai-wn mailing list by dehai.org]--------------
Received on Mon Aug 05 2013 - 09:17:43 EDT