South Sudan: Democratization by Dismissal?
<
http://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/directory/182410> Ahmed Soliman,
Research Assistant, Horn of Africa, Africa Programme
3rd August, 2013
The high expectations that came with South Sudan's independence in July 2011
have been quick to erode. Inadequate progress in development, ongoing
insurgencies and concerns about governance and military influence have
increased fears of state failure. Political crisis marked the country's
second birthday when President Salva Kiir dissolved the entire cabinet. The
constitutional 'major reshuffle' was by presidential decree.
There is broad consensus among the population and in parliament over the
need for more streamlined government and the president's actions can in part
be seen as an attempt to improve the functionality of South Sudan's ruling
party, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). However, this is
complicated by the dismissal of two of the government's most prominent
members - Vice President Riek Machar and Secretary General Pagan Amum. Their
sackings are linked to factionalism within the SPLM. Ahead of elections in
2015, an escalating power struggle has seen each advance their cause to be
named SPLM chairperson. From the outside, Salva Kiir's preemptive move seems
overly defensive: preventing two potential political opponents from
challenging him, pushing them down the party's pecking order and paving the
way for his leadership to continue. Riek Machar accepted the decision and
confirmed his intention to contest for the presidency from within the SPLM.
President Kiir will aim to name a new cabinet soon. But the lack of
ministerial capacity will mean no important decisions will be made until the
new government is formed. A reduction in the number of government ministries
from 29 to 19 will reduce his options for maintaining alliances in the SPLM.
How long it takes the president to form the cabinet and the strength of his
appointments are likely to determine whether he successfully resolves the
issue of succession ahead of the party convention later this year.
Still in transition
The SPLM has yet to shed its militaristic tendencies in favour of
civilian-led governance. Its leadership still values rigid army seniority
above the promotion of individual and collective merit. President Kiir is
aware that despite the SPLM's declining legitimacy, it retains much public
loyalty having secured the right to self-determination and there is no sign
yet of a viable opposition party or candidate.
Corruption and mismanagement also explain the president's political
shake-up. Last year, Kiir wrote to South Sudanese officials asking for the
return of stolen funds estimated to have cost the country $4 billion since
2005. The suspension of Cabinet Affairs Minister Deng Alor and Finance
Minister Kosti Manibe in June 2013 over corruption allegations and the
subsequent appointment of SPLM tribunals are a step towards addressing the
issue. However the tribunals - and that for Pagan Amum - risk being seen as
politically motivated, thereby constituting an abuse of executive power.
Planning ahead
With two years until the next election and the economy rapidly
deteriorating, there is an opportunity for Riek Machar and Pagan Amum to
bide their time within the party and build support from within to challenge
Salva Kiir. Alternatively, they could carve their own separate factions from
the SPLM and attempt to run as opposition candidates. Current restrictions
against political opposition in South Sudan would be challenged if the
prominent figures joined forces - as former opponents Uhuru Kenyatta and
William Ruto did in Kenya. A standoff between the president and his
opponents is likely to continue for some time.
The collapse comes at a critical moment during talks with Sudan. Khartoum
has threatened to shut down Red Sea oil export pipelines on 22 August unless
the SPLM ends its support for rebels in Sudan's Darfur, Blue Nile and South
Kordofan regions. South Sudan denies aiding the rebels and has threatened
its own shut down of oil production, alleging that the rebellion led by
David Yau Yau in Jonglei is backed by Sudan.
Negotiations with Sudan will be weakened by the absence of chief negotiator
Pagan Amum. Sudan is well placed to take advantage of the situation despite
assurances that any deals with Juba will not be impacted by the political
crisis. Senior diplomats are consulting between the two countries, including
Thabo Mbeki who heads the African Union's High-Level Implementation Panel.
Ethiopian Foreign Minister Tedros Adhanom and China's Africa Envoy Zhong
Jianhua have intervened to help progress on the joint cooperation agreement
that aims to continue the flow of oil that is vital to both countries'
economies.
Oil shutdown
The shutdown of oil production in January 2012 immobilized 98% of government
income for over a year; another extended closure risks corroding the
pipelines. South Sudan recently became a member of the IMF but government
paralysis may hinder its ability to meet the first loan repayments taken to
cover the loss of earnings from oil. Austerity is being felt across South
Sudan, with cuts of 30% to government consumption, transfers to the
country's ten states and the development budget. Public sector salaries have
been mostly untouched, but the government is struggling to pay them. In
2012, food and fuel price increases were as high as 170% in some states. A
similar period without oil revenues coupled with a protracted political
standoff would cripple the economy and push households further into
destitution.
The government has been unable to use independence and its liberated oil
fields as a catalyst for progressive change. Internal and external crises
have increased pressure on the SPLM, still transitioning from a liberating
force into a governing party. Evolution is possible; a split in the SPLM
could be positive if it led to the emergence of new political parties.
However, this could be tempered by the tendency towards factionalization
rather than democratization, escalating ethnic divisions, paralyzing the
SPLM and potentially lead the country towards more violence.
The international community must offer its support to ensure that domestic
and cross-border political stalemates do not worsen. For President Salva
Kiir, the choice is between the interests of the nation and those of power.
Focus on the former is essential to South Sudan's future; it now needs a
government that can prioritize service delivery in the interests of the
South Sudanese people.
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Received on Sat Aug 03 2013 - 07:01:58 EDT