Somalia and the Slippery Slope of 'Jubbaland'
by <
http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/author/abukararman/> Abukar Arman | on
May 22nd, 2013 |
If the latest development in Somalia gives you the feeling of being trapped
in the Twilight Zone - somewhere between relative security and renewed
bloodshed - you are not alone. Due to the array of competing internal and
external interest groups and the federal government's lack of clear grand
strategy or capacity to assert its authority, the formation of "Jubbaland
State" is proving as highly volatile as some have predicted.
Jubbaland is a microcosm of the Somali political conundrum. Not that it is
only second to Mogadishu in terms clan-based violence, it has all the highly
flammable political elements necessary to detrimentally undermine the
current government, and, God-forbid, reignite the 1991 civil war all over
again.
Contested Authority
For decades, since the founding of the Somali Youth Club (later League,) May
15 has been a special day in the Somali history. In its heyday, SYL was
broadly recognized as the most authentic country-wide patriotic movement.
This year was even more special as it marked the 70th anniversary of its
founding. However, the anniversary passed without any fanfare because of two
particular political and legislative trials.
Two contending men with heavily armed militias have each declared himself
the
<
http://sabahionline.com/en_GB/articles/hoa/articles/features/2013/05/16/fea
ture-01> "President of Jubbaland" (and a third one has declared himself as
the President of Wamoland.) With this latest development, the city of
Kismaayo, in due course, could suffer the Galka'yo syndrome where
non-compromising clan contention has forced the town of Galka'yo into a
demarcation of several political fiefdoms ruled by several different
Presidents.
Meanwhile, a coalition of MPs has submitted a motion forcing Prime Minister
Abdi Farah Shirdon to appear before the parliament to seek vote of
confidence. Though their declared motive was that the Council of Ministers
has neglected its duty and that some ministries are hardly functioning - a
concern that many would agree to - the timing and the most vocal
representatives of the coalition suggest otherwise. More like a payback to a
government that insisted on appointing a Governor to the Lower Jubba region
(as it did for Hiiraan, Bay and Gedo) before commencing the process of
building a Federal State which constitutionally requires the voluntary
consent of two or more functional regions. This latter point has been
<
http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2013/04/04/somalia-side-effect-of-an-overpric
ed-panacea/> a bone of contention between the Federal Government and the
proponents of the Jubbaland initiative.
Cause and Effect
Like all things political, the current dilemma did not materialize out of a
vacuum. The strategic, commercial, agricultural, and oil prospect of the
region has lured various groups of warlords, clan-based militias, militant
religious extremists and foreign predators into an ever-morphing struggle
for control. Moreover, almost all of these actors find their encouragement
from the Dual-Track policy which lends all, except al-Shabaab, either tacit
or direct support. Also, from IGAD (read Kenya and Ethiopia) which now has a
legal mandate to micromanage the Somali internal affairs as
<
http://www.igad.int/attachments/605_Communique%20of%20the%2021st%20IGAD%20E
xtra-Ordinary%20Summit.pdf> Article 10 of the 21st Extraordinary Summit
which was held a few days before the London Conference held on May 7 deals
with the current government as though it's still in transition.
Last July, as the transitional government's term was coming to an end, I
authored an article entitled
<
http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2012/07/11/post-transitional-political-fault-
lines/> Post-Transitional Political Fault Lines. In it I listed "The Lower
Jubba Enigma" as one of the fault lines to seriously threaten the soon to be
formed government. I must have underestimated the potential volatility since
Jubbaland now has a combination of several active fault lines out of that
list.
Danger lurks as the average person in Kismaayo - the epicenter of rapidly
gathering political tsunami - belongs to one of these three categories:
either being intoxicated with euphoria, dejected by frustration or
incapacitated by fear. Meanwhile, those contending for power are positioning
themselves for the worst case scenario.
An Alternative to an Unsettling Option
All options that are currently on the table are considered zero-sum by one
group or another. So, something must change, and soon, before things fall
apart and issues reach beyond repair.
That said; a sure way to failure is to try to attempt solving all problems
at the same time; hence the importance of prioritization. While the foreign
predatory element might be strategically the most potent threat, the
clan-activated fault line, due to its emotionally reactive nature and
tendency to engage haphazardly, might require the most immediate attention.
This means that the Federal Government would have to come up with a strategy
beyond the assertion of "We do not recognize any of the illegally formed
Jubbaland administrations."
Of course, this would not be an easy task, especially since the government
has a credibility issue due to the following reasons: A combination of
presidential public misspeak and an out of context statement that seems to
grant certain regions the right to form their own federal state while
denying others. This, needless to say, seem to single out one particular
clan that, ironically, supported President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's candidacy
only a few months ago.
The said issue has motivated a deliberate campaign that projected the
current government as arbitrarily curtailing the rights of that particular
clan. Since no reconciliation has yet taken place to heal old wounds and
trust still remains very fragile, it is no surprise that that negative
perception has spread so widely within that one clan to the point that it
became the battle cry of otherwise its intellectuals and most reasonable
members. The government, on its part, has failed to recognize the importance
of timely reaction and perception management and decided to focus on
international relations.
Second, it has been, at best, very tentative or ambivalent in declaring its
frustration with the role of its neighbors, Kenya and Ethiopia, in adding
fuel to the fire in Jubbaland.
Changing Course
Extraordinary situations demand extraordinary responses. Therefore,
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud must directly appeal to and mend fences with
the elders and opinion-makers of the aforementioned aggrieved clan also help
de-escalate the intra-clan tension through face-to-face, radio, television
and internet.
The president should immediately appoint a highly credible envoy to
spearhead a diplomatic campaign and be stationed in Nairobi Embassy. It is
there where the political infrastructure and the apparatus propelling the
Jubbaland project are fueled.
Provide a face-saving opportunity for key contending actors by appointing
them or any of their chosen representatives, along with other government
representatives, as part of a Stabilization Council to defuse the tension.
This Council can play the role of the Governor and govern the region by
consensus for 90 or so days before an all-inclusive election would take
place.
In the event that they dismiss the offer, the government should request the
Kenyan troops to arrest those jeopardizing the security of the region.
Precedent was set when two of the most feared warlords were arrested in
Mogadishu on two different occasions. In the event that Kenya dismisses the
request, the government should exercise its authority to issue a Cease and
Desist and demand the immediate withdrawal of the Kenyan (and Ethiopian)
troops.
Such an action would put the onus on Kenya to indicate its stance: Is it
part of the AMISOM which operates under AU/UN mandate and is in partnership
with the Federal Government, or is it a stealth occupying force?
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Received on Wed May 22 2013 - 23:01:41 EDT
