Ethiopia Playing At Being Good Neighbours
..."Somalia is now becoming a money machine for troop-contributing countries
in the region, who wish to train new recruits for their armed forces,
instead of their initial intention to help the Somali government and
people."...........
By William Lloyd-George, 17 May 2013
ADDIS ABABA , May 17 2013 (IPS)-Despite comments by Ethiopian Prime Minister
Hailemariam Desalegn suggesting the pending withdrawal of his country's
troops from Somalia, many experts have voiced doubts that Ethiopia will pull
out of Somalia before it is capable of handling its security without
assistance.
"Ethiopia has a big interest in Somalia and will remain, keeping its eyes
wide open there for some time," Abel Abate, from the state-funded think tank
the <
http://eiipdethiopia.org/> Ethiopian International Institute for Peace
and Development, told IPS.
"One purpose is to avoid the threat posed by the Islamist
<
http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/05/giving-extremists-a-second-chance/>
Al-Shabaab group, which sees Ethiopia as an enemy. And secondly, to show the
world that it has made a significant contribution to peace and stability in
the region."
Somalia is still recovering from nearly two decades of war, and large parts
of the Horn of Africa nation have been under siege by the
<
http://www.ipsnews.net/2011/12/somalia-taking-schools-back-from-militants/>
extremist Al-Shabaab.
The Somali transitional federal government, which is propped up by the
<
http://amisom-au.org/> African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and
regional troops, barely has control over the country's capital Mogadishu.
While African countries have sent troops to Somalia under AMISOM, Ethiopia's
troops, which have been in the country since 2011, do not operate under the
AU mission.
Last year, with the help of regional forces, the Somali government was able
to recapture some key points in the country, including the port of Merca and
the city of Jowhar, the biggest town under Al-Shabaab control, situated 70
km and 90 km from Mogadishu respectively.
However, in mid-March, Ethiopia pulled its troops from the southern town of
Hudur without warning AMISOM. Following the withdrawal, Al-Shabaab
immediately took control of the town in its first major military success
since it retreated from Mogadishu in August 2011.
"Ethiopia pulled out from certain places in Somalia in order to send a
signal to the international community that unless you support us, we will
not shoulder all of Somalia's problems," Abate said.
"Ethiopia wanted to put pressure on the agencies and countries which have
been supporting AMISOM but not Ethiopia, and to show the world that it is
the maker or breaker of Somalia."
Meanwhile, an Ethiopian government representative told IPS that the lack of
international support for Somalia has made it difficult for this country to
withdraw troops.
"Ever since we intervened in Somalia our initial plan was to hand it over to
AMISOM and Somali forces," Ethiopian government spokesperson Dina Mufti told
IPS.
"However, we feel that international support has been lagging, not only for
AMISOM, but for the whole Somali project, which has made it difficult for us
to withdraw while these forces are too weak to take over."
Dina hoped that a recent conference in London on May 7, where over 50
countries and organisations met to discuss how best to aid Somalia, might
change this. However, he stopped short of saying it would be a game changer.
"One thing is for sure, we remain fully committed to supporting Somalia,"
Dina said. But he could not say if Ethiopia would wait until AMISOM and the
Somali army took over key strongholds before pulling out. "That I can't
say."
Unlike AMISOM forces in Somalia, which are funded by the AU, Ethiopia pays
for their operations themselves. This is believed to be one of the biggest
contributing factors to Ethiopia's frustration.
"Hailemariam has ... tried to put pressure on the international community to
put more resources into the issue, so Ethiopia can pull out gradually,"
Kjetil Tronvoll from the Oslo-based <
http://www.ilpi.org/> International
Law and Policy Institute told IPS.
"I do not think they will pull out prematurely, I think they might regroup
some of their forces, but I don't think they will just leave it open for
Al-Shabaab to regroup and resurface and stay in that area currently
controlled by Ethiopia."
Tronvoll said he believed that Ethiopia would use its presence in Somalia as
a bargaining chip for its agenda.
"If they feel as though they are losing influence in Mogadishu ... or if
they feel as though they are being pushed out, or not being consulted
enough, they can use a withdrawal as a threat," said Tronvoll. "They could
say, we back you up on the ground, and if our concerns are not listened to
in your policy development, then these are the repercussions you can
expect."
While it is seemingly unlikely that Ethiopia will immediately withdraw its
troops, contradictory statements made last month by members of the Ethiopian
government did result in confusion.
On Apr. 23, Hailemariam told parliament that AMISOM was taking too long to
replace Ethiopian troops and that the main focus should be to accelerate
their withdrawal.
However, the next day the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Ethiopia would
not withdraw troops until AMISOM and the Somali army were ready to take
over.
But it is uncertain how much longer this will take.
According to Hassan Rafiki, an expert consultant at the Institute for Peace
and Security Studies working with the government of Somalia, AMISOM is not
as aggressive as it was in the initial stages.
"The troops have now found room to breathe from Al-Shabaab and the mission
is, therefore, not encouraged or enthusiastic to replace the Ethiopian
troops," Rafiki told IPS.
"Somalia is now becoming a money machine for troop-contributing countries in
the region, who wish to train new recruits for their armed forces, instead
of their initial intention to help the Somali government and people."
Another concern is the lack of AMISOM resources. "In its current capacity of
little over 17,000 (troops), AMISOM is over-stretched. It won't be able to
fill the vacuum left by Ethiopia unless its troop levels are increased,"
Abdi Aynte, director of Mogadishu's first think-tank the
<
http://www.heritageinstitute.org/> Heritage Institute for Policy Studies,
told IPS.
"Ethiopia must understand that it's in its best interest to shift course and
work with the Somali people and their government to reestablish strong state
institutions," said Aynte. "A stable, democratic Somalia is the best
possible neighbour that Ethiopia could ask for in the world's toughest
region."
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Received on Fri May 17 2013 - 22:34:14 EDT
