Last week, Somalia's donors and international partners came together in
London to lay down the foundations of post-transitional government in the
country.
The London gathering, which brought together over 50 heads of state and
hundreds of international organizations, marked a new and unprecedented
level of involvement by the international community in the country.
In his opening remarks, Prime Minister David Cameron said in the clearest
terms that Somalia matters to UK (and the international community at large)
as young Somali minds remain at risk of being poisoned by the propaganda of
Al-Shabaab, going on to export terrorism and extremism beyond Somalia's
borders.
He adds "anyone who thinks this isn't a priority... I'd say look what we've
done in the past and look where it has got us - terrorism and mass
migration". He went on to say "we made that mistake not in the Horn of
Africa, but Afghanistan".
The UK has two primary national interests in Somalia: that the country never
becomes a haven for terrorists operating against UK interests and that the
perpetual chaos does not precipitate another wave of mass migration to the
UK.
In pursuit of these two interests it has reopened its embassy in Mogadishu -
the first Western embassy to relocate there since the civil war, has hosted
two major conferences on Somalia in London in the past year and pledged
millions of dollars to the reconstruction of the country.
More importantly, the new UNSRG is a veteran British diplomat and will
spearhead one the biggest UN-integrated missions in the country. The
strategic objective for this mission is, according to the resolution, to
help Somalia build on political gains made over the past year and support
the government's core policy priorities.
Whilst Britain may be leading the current diplomatic surge on Somalia the
analysis in Mogadishu is that this only occurred after Turkey demonstrated a
willingness to get involved during the famine in 2011 following a landmark
visit by Prime Minister Recep Erdogan.
Plenty of countries have now reopened their embassies since then and have
begun dipping their feet in back on the ground. The most notable example is
the US's recent stamp-of-recognition to the new government and the
subsequent IMF, World Bank and USAID re-engagement.
On balance, Britain's political-security imperative in the country is much
greater than that of other international players and has galvanized
Somalia's pre-existing momentum.
But it was Turkey's moral-imperative which had the greatest impact in
humanitarian terms and saved thousands of lives that would otherwise have
been lost as a consequence of famine.
The London Conference
Conventional wisdom in Mogadishu towards the London Conference was that
Somalia's problems have now become a global concern and its future agenda
are now taken seriously into major Western cities.
Whilst such conferences may appear to be largely symbolic, they have a huge
psychological effect on the Somali people who, over the years, have grown
used to seeing neighboring cities like Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Djibouti
host conferences on Somalia and, as result, have become deeply cynical
towards neighbour-led initiatives.
The goal of last week's conference was to rally behind the new government in
Mogadishu and outline how the international community can be part of the
country's future.
President Hassan outlined a broadly sensible blueprint for his government,
despite being notably short on specifics. His three priorities are security,
justice and public financial management.
But will London II live up to its promises and pledges? While there are some
reasons to be hopeful, there are equally reasons to worry.
Firstly, since reconciliation topped the President's six-point pillar, the
absence of members of semi-autonomous regions, chiefly Somaliland and
Puntland, dashes any national and broad-based reconciliation efforts.
It is regrettable that Somaliland refused to attend, as their absence
deepens the political and ideological disparity that exists between
Somaliland and Somalia. Their respective leaders did, however, recently meet
in Ankara after serious cajoling and behind-the-scenes diplomacy brokered by
the Turkish government.
Secondly, whilst security has improved considerably, with Al-Shabaab being
pushed back to more rural areas, it still mounts frequent attacks against
high visibility targets throughout the country and has assassinated high
profile officers working for the government. Progress is fragile and easily
reversed.
The recent storming of the High Court and subsequent blast in KM4
demonstrates the movement's fast-track guerrilla hit and run strategy.
Although the current government has offered a carte blanche negotiation, it
still prefers military activity over diplomacy.
This military-centric approach might underpin any potential dialogue with
moderate elements and low-level militants (the young poisoned minds that
David Cameron worries about) who are not true believers but are either
radicalized or joined for financial reasons.
Thirdly, the money that has being pledged and the enormity of the problems
remain worlds apart. Somalia is coming out of 20 years of destruction, with
financial and social infrastructure having almost totally collapsed.
Donor-countries, for their part, should make available the promised
financial assistance with no strings attached. Instead of exerting pressure
and influence, these donors can establish trade partnerships in livestock,
fishery, agricultural and tourism.
These challenges are not easily resolved, but having them in mind now might
enable David Cameron to avoid repeating the past mistakes in Afghanistan.
Abdihakim Ainte is a Somali researcher & analyst. You can follow him on
Twitter _at_Abdikhakim
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Received on Wed May 15 2013 - 20:42:59 EDT
