Kenya After the Elections
Africa Briefing N°94 15 May 2013
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/africa/horn-of-africa/kenya/b094-ke
nya-after-the-elections.pdf
OVERVIEW
Kenyan democracy was severely tested in the lead-up to, during and after the
4 March 2013 elections. On 9 March, following a tense but relatively
peaceful election, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission
(IEBC) declared Jubilee Coalition’s Uhuru Kenyatta president-elect. He
garnered 50.07 per cent of the vote – barely passing the threshold for a
first round victory. His closest opponent, former Prime Minister Raila
Odinga, challenged his victory in court, but despite allegations of
irregularities and technical failures, the Supreme Court validated the
election. Although Odinga accepted the ruling, his party and several civil
society organisations questioned the election’s shortcomings and its impact
on democracy. President Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, will have to
restore confidence in the electoral process and show robust commitment to
the implementation of the new constitution, in particular to devolution,
land reform, the fight against corruption and national reconciliation.
Failure to do so risks further polarising the country and alienating the
international community.
Despite some clashes preceding the vote, and following the court’s decision,
the nation avoided a repeat of the 2007-2008 post-election violence. A
number of factors contributed to a predominantly peaceful election,
including a general consensus between the political elite and the citizenry
not to bring Kenya to the brink of civil war again. International pressure,
in particular from the current International Criminal Court (ICC) cases,
media self-censorship, restrictions on freedom of assembly, and deployment
of security forces to potential hotspots also helped avert unrest. In
addition, Kenya’s citizens took pre-emptive action by returning to ethnic
homelands to vote, with vulnerable groups vacating areas of past communal
violence.
However, a number of vital, more overarching reforms addressing systemic and
structural conflict drivers – a culture of impunity, high unemployment, land
reform, resettlement of internally displaced persons (IDPs), ethnic
tensions, weak institutions and regional and socio-economic inequality –
have yet to be implemented. Accountability for the 2007-2008 post-election
violence remains largely unaddressed. It now rests with the ICC with charges
against three (of the original six) suspects still pending, including
prosecutions of the newly elected president and deputy president. Kenyatta
and Ruto deny the allegations against them and have publicly committed to
cooperate with the court. Yet in early May, Kenya’s permanent representative
to the UN submitted a brief to the Security Council seeking to have the case
terminated, a move that was subsequently rejected by Ruto and the attorney
general but follows a history of government challenges to the court.
With the first election under the 2010 constitution complete, Kenyans now
anticipate the full force of reforms that aim to redress grievances against
centralised governance and uneven economic development. Through devolved
government, the 47 newly created counties, with their own elected governors
and assemblies, will seek to tackle socio-economic inequalities. However,
faith in the central government’s will and capacity to implement reforms has
been further weakened by the failures in the reformed electoral machinery.
To restore public confidence in the electoral process, the government
should:
* conduct a comprehensive audit of the electoral process, drawing on
all the relevant legislation, institutions and mechanisms;
* address inadequate training of IEBC field officers, the police and
other security sector personnel;
* enhance communication of the processes in the electoral cycle and
address deficiencies in civic and voter education; and
* investigate and prosecute those suspected of committing electoral
offences, including IEBC staff members, and work to rebuild confidence in
the IEBC.
County governments will have to work alongside central government to ensure
effective management and equitable allocation of national and local
resources. The success of devolution will depend on mutual cooperation
between the National Assembly, the Senate, county governors and assemblies,
and the Transitional Authority (TA) mandated to oversee the devolution
process. In the following months the new government should:
* clarify the distinct and interdependent functions of county and
national governments pursuant to the constitution and relevant legislation;
* encourage transparency with continuous updates on the status of the
transition;
* ensure county governments adhere to constitutional requirements for
diversity and representation; and
* build capacity at the county government level and ensure adequate
and timely resource allocation.
As Kenya moves forward under a Jubilee government, focus will be on
implementing the constitution, ensuring the smooth transition to devolved
government and bringing justice to the victims of the 2007-2008
post-election violence. To ensure political stability, economic growth and
mutually beneficial foreign relations, President Kenyatta’s government, with
the support of regional and international partners, will need to:
* cement peace and reconciliation initiatives and continue to seek
justice for post-election violence victims through continued cooperation
with the ICC; and
* maintain progressive relationships with regional and international
partners to ensure the achievements of the Grand Coalition Government,
established in 2008, are preserved and built upon, and that Kenya’s
ambitious socio-economic goals are achieved.
Nairobi/Brussels, 15 May 2013
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Received on Wed May 15 2013 - 18:03:08 EDT
