Somalia Conference and Rivalry of Civilizations
Horn of Africa
by <
http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/author/abukararman/> Abukar Arman | on
May 13th, 2013 |
<
http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2013/05/10/somalia-conference-and-rivalry-of-
civilizations/#comments> 0 comments
A few days before the “
<
https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/somalia-conference-2013>
Somalia Conference 2013” held in London on May 7, a foreign journalist
friend of mine sent me an e-mail asking what my thoughts were regarding the
upcoming conference hosted by Prime Minister David Cameron. I replied: “My
heart’s belief in miracles outweighed my mind’s interest in the pursuit of
objective analysis.”
I am as optimistic as I was then, but hardly quixotic.
While the conference’s
<
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/somalia-conference-2013-communique>
Final Communique outlines specific acknowledgements and directives that
could have various effects on various actors, the most important messages
were asserted in the implicit, or by way of omission.
The communique acknowledges improved conditions such as security sector,
drastic reduction in the number of pirate attacks, receding famine, and the
large number of the diaspora returning home. Likewise, it acknowledges
challenges such as al-Shabaab’s hit-and-run campaign of terror and the fact
that the
<
http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2012/08/07/a-constitution-of-ambiguity-and-de
ferment/> provisional constitution is an incomplete document that fails to
address some of the most serious issues of contention.
On the political front, the communique welcomes the Federal Government’s
plans “to resolve outstanding constitutional issues, including the sharing
of power, resources and revenues between the Federal Government and the
regions.” It continues to state, “We welcomed the dialogue on the future
structure of Somalia that has begun between the Federal Government and the
regions. We welcomed progress on forming regional administrations and looked
forward to the completion of that process. We encouraged the regions to work
closely with the Federal Government to form a cohesive national polity
consistent with the provisional constitution.”
The message seems clear; however, there is one thing missing — the term
“federal state.” Though the concept is prominently established in the
constitution, oddly it is replaced with terms such as “regions” and
“regional administrations” in the communique. Throughout the communique the
term is sidestepped seven times.
Was this the result of collective amnesia, or was it a deliberate action
articulated in a carefully crafted language? If I were a betting person, I’d
go with the latter.
As a <
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2013/sc10944.doc.htm> newly
rebranded coalition mandated by a new resolution, the international
community has a new plan and initiative that will most likely to be much
different than the discredited version outsourced to the hegemon of the
Horn- Ethiopia. Hegemons tend to grant themselves the right to roam around
freely and randomly exploit any ventures they deem expedient to their
perceived unilateral self-interest.
Despite the fact the U.S. dual-track policy still has a de facto presence on
the ground, this new language seems to have been injected to indicate
rejection of the prevalent domestic clan-centric political order. Who can
ignore the stubborn fact that, in current day Somalia, “federalism” means
nothing other than legalized clan domination? The Alfa Clan, or the most
armed, mainly gets the lion’s share and subjugates others while crying wolf.
The writing is on the wall: Somalis must renegotiate the form of government
and indeed governance in a way that decentralizes power, leaves space to
accommodate Somaliland, and brings the nation back together. The
international community has been receiving earful of grievances from various
clans, such as those from Sol, Sanaag, Ein and Awdal who inhabit Somaliland
and say they are facing existentialist threat from the current arrangement,
and, as such, are invoking their rights to stay in the union.
However mortifying this may be to some actors, reason should prevail.
Staying the old course is a recipe for renewed civil war and perpetual
instability. Somalia is too war-weary and too important to let it drift back
into chaos again.
Contrary to the common perception, Somalia is perhaps the most important
political theatre in the 21st century as it is where geopolitics,
geoeconomic and georeligious dynamics intersect and interplay. And it is
where two old empires (British and Turkish) are positioning themselves for
global influence. Meanwhile, the curtains are slowly opening to unveil the
covert rivalry of civilizations, instead of the clichéd “clash.”
According to
<
http://www.channel4.com/news/london-somalia-conference-britain-is-playing-c
atch-up> Jamal Osman of U.K. Channel 4, “Western nations are uneasy about
the rapid growth of Turkish influence in Somalia, and the UK government’s
initiative is seen as part of the West’s agenda to counter it.”
Whether or not this latest high profile conference would prove “a pivotal
moment for Somalia” would depend on two particular factors. First, it
depends on how soon the Somali leadership comes to understand that without
reconciliation, improved security, public services and development cannot be
sustained. Second, it would depend on how key international partners avoid
the political temptation of zero-sum gains.
Competition of civilizations can be healthy so long as the key actors
cooperate, collaborate and negotiate ways that would not take away from each
other and the others. However, it’s no secret that the difference between
pre-Erdogan (Turkish Prime Minister) and post-Erdogan visit of Somalia is
day and night, and that Turkey has been quite humble about the life-changing
provisions it has made available for the Somali people and nation.
At the end of the day, what tips the scale and wins the hearts and minds of
people are the tangible direct services provided to them at their most dire
moment. Everything else is considered a costly symbolism. “There are two
kinds of people, those who do the work and those who take the credit;” said
the late Indira Gandhi. “Try to be in the first group; there is less
competition there,” she added. This, of course, is even more pertinent to
the Somali government.
While improvement of security apparatus, finance system and rule of law are
indeed issues of high priority, the federal government would have to provide
substantive public services far beyond Mogadishu. More importantly, the
government must strategically balance the ways, means and ends at its
discretion to achieve its objective of secure, reconciled and cohesively
functioning Somalia. That is what Somalis yearn for, and that is what the
international community wishes to assist Somalia with.
To think strategically is to recognize “what time is it.” What works today
might not work tomorrow; and what is available today might not be available
tomorrow.
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Received on Mon May 13 2013 - 20:04:47 EDT
