(Reuters) - After a crackdown pushed them out of Nigeria's northern cities,
Islamist militant group Boko Haram have regrouped, rearmed and are staging a
bold comeback that has already allowed them to seize control over parts of
the northeast.
Using porous borders with Chad, Niger and Cameroon in the desolate scrubland
around Lake Chad, they are smuggling bigger weapons, staging cross-border
raids, killing and kidnapping in an escalation of violence that could
further draw Nigeria's neighbors into its counter-insurgency fight, security
officials say.
The Islamists now control at least 10 of the 27 local council areas in Borno
state, Nigeria's most remote northeastern region on the edge of the Sahara
and a relic of one of Africa's oldest medieval Islamic empires, security
sources there say.
One says the real figure could be closer to 20, as local councilors fearing
assassination have fled, leaving a power vacuum filled by bearded radicals
with automatic rifles.
Boko Haram's struggle for an Islamic state has killed thousands since 2009
and is the main threat to Africa's top oil producer, although its fighters
have so far not struck anywhere near the southern oil fields.
When Borno's governor Kassim Shettima briefed visiting senators and military
advisers in a confidential security meeting on May 7, he said something that
stunned them: Boko Haram were on the verge of seizing control of his state.
"What the governor said was frightening. He informed us there is a
possibility that this state will be taken over by Boko Haram ... that they
have the ability to do whatever they wanted here," senator Abdul Ahmed
Ningi, a delegate and deputy majority leader for the ruling party, said
after the meeting.
"I had thought Boko Haram had been subdued to some extent."
MOVEMENT IN FLUX
A wave of Islamic fervor took hold of northern Nigeria during an economic
crisis in the early 1980s, triggering riots in the north's main city of Kano
and later prompting many states to introduce Sharia law from 1999.
In 2002, a cleric called Mohammed Yusuf founded a radical Islamist movement
in Borno, later nicknamed 'Boko Haram' or 'Western education is sinful' in
the northern Hausa language because of its opposition to Western cultural
influences.
A military crackdown during an uprising in 2009 led to the deaths of 800
people, including Yusuf, who died in police custody.
Far from being silenced, they struck back, first shooting or throwing bombs
at police off the back of motorcycles, then graduating to increasingly
sophisticated bomb-making technology.
By late last year it seemed the militants had been chased out of city
centers and were losing the ability to carry out large-scale attacks, but
Boko Haram have repeatedly proved masters of recovering from apparent
defeat.
A coordinated strike by some 200 Boko Haram fighters on an army barracks,
police station and prison in the town of Bama last week that left 55 people
dead and freed more than 100 prisoners was the latest evidence that they
have recovered their strength.
Initially funded by northern politicians who later distanced themselves from
the militants, Boko Haram have forged growing links with Saharan Islamists
such as al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, giving them new access to funding
and training.
LAWLESS LAKE
The road from Borno's capital Maiduguri to Lake Chad, where Niger, Chad,
Nigeria and Cameroon join, cuts through a semi-desert landscape dotted with
lonely trees and thatched straw hamlets.
In one village, a skinny old man herds goats across wind-swept sands while a
woman in a purple hijab balances a jug on her head, not far from the ashen
remains of a car bomb.
Further along, a man in a turban and flowing robes rides on horseback across
an expanse of grayish sand, a flashback to the centuries past when Borno was
a prosperous sultanate profiting from trade routes crossing the Sahara to
the Mediterranean.
Save the odd military checkpoint, there are few signs of statehood here.
Disused schools and council buildings decay in dry heat. A fisheries college
that was abandoned last year after an attack killed some staff stands eerily
empty.
Boko Haram, under the leadership of fiery, gun-toting militant Abubakar
Shekau, is thought to be getting closer to achieving its dream of creating
some kind of Islamic rule in the lawless areas around Lake Chad, where even
the police have fled.
"They are now holding territory," Kole Shettima, chairman of the Centre for
Democracy and Development, said. "The next step is to create institutions:
justice, social services," as Malian Islamists did before the French forced
them out of its cities.
The Bama attack showed their substantial firepower, including machine guns,
large numbers of rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) and pick-up trucks mounted
with anti-aircraft guns, a sign the weapons flood from the Libyan war that
helped rebels seize parts of Mali last year has reached Nigeria, officials
say.
"They're getting bolder, better armed, more organized. it's looking bleak,"
a security official in Maiduguri said.
The exact number of Boko Haram fighters is hard to estimate -- and the
degree to which Shekau and the four main members of his 'Shura council' --
Habibu Yusuk, Khalis Albarnawai, Momodu Bama and Mohammed Zangina -- have
control over them is unclear.
They rarely communicate with the press since their spokesman was killed last
year, although Shekau sometimes uploads videos of himself making bellicose
statements onto the web.
Security officials believe they have several hundred well armed and trained
fighters and possibly thousands of members.
The army spokesman for Borno state, Lieutenant-Colonel Sagir Musa, denied
that the group were staging a significant comeback, but he told Reuters they
were moving in bigger numbers than before.
"KILLERS"
A military convoy rumbles into the remote fishing settlement of Baga, on the
shores of Lake Chad, scene of fighting last month that killed dozens of
people, many of them civilians.
As it weaves past the charred remains of ruined houses, locals shout abuse
at soldiers in the Hausa language.
On April 16, Boko Haram militants armed with guns and RPGs killed a soldier
on patrol, slicing his head off with an axe.
What happened next is disputed. Brigadier-General Austin Edokpayi, who heads
a multinational force comprising 1,200 Nigerians, 700 Chadians and 300
troops from Niger charged with securing this volatile border area, said
reinforcements arrived and met fierce resistance from entrenched Boko Haram
gunmen.
Community leaders say the Boko Haram militants had already fled over the
border into Chad by the time the soldiers arrived, who then exacted
vengeance on the civilian population, shooting, setting fire to houses and
killing 185 people.
Whatever the truth of what happened at Baga, Boko Haram's creeping
establishment of a stronghold around Lake Chad is becoming a major headache
for Nigeria and its neighbors.
"It has emboldened the terrorists," Edokpayi said, complaining that since
most local government officials have fled, the military were effectively on
their own. "They are eating deep into the ... sovereignty of the Nigerian
state."
At one Baga village meeting in which elders complained of heavy handedness
by Nigerian troops, an intelligence official told Reuters around half the
attendees were Boko Haram members.
Many are poor, young men with little if any formal education and no job
prospects in some of the poorest places on earth.
The group's ability to strike fear stems both from its secretiveness -- no
one who isn't a member can be sure who is -- and its visibility in places
where the state has withered.
"They are there for everybody to see. You can see them sitting in front of
their houses, holding their guns," said a man near Baga fish market who gave
his name only as Abubakar.
That Boko Haram is also a menace to other countries around the lake was
highlighted in February when it kidnapped a French family of seven from a
game park in north Cameroon, taking them over the border into Nigeria. They
were freed in April.
The cross border threat is likely to prompt more joint operations. The
multinational force was originally set up in 1998 to deal with marauding
Chadian rebels, but last year was expanded to include anti Boko Haram
operations.
Yet the insurgents' ability to melt away under military pressure and then
come back has convinced many that only some kind of political solution will
resolve the conflict.
President Goodluck Jonathan set up a body last month to formulate terms for
an amnesty, like the one that helped silence militancy in the oil producing
Niger Delta in 2009, but the Islamists showed no interest, with Shekau
denouncing it.
And few think any peace can hold unless Jonathan's administration can
address the underlying causes of insecurity -- the north's extreme poverty
and unemployment.
In the meantime, Boko Haram's efforts to revive an Islamist theocracy in
northeast Nigeria will cause more bloodshed yet.
(Editing by Giles Elgood)
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Received on Mon May 13 2013 - 17:05:14 EDT
