Somalia-The centre holds, but only just
The new government in Mogadishu has yet to prove its mettle
May 9th 2013 | NAIROBI | <
http://www.economist.com/printedition/2013-05-11>
From the print edition
AT THE end of the colonial era Somalia was arguably in ethnic terms the most
homogeneous country in sub-Saharan Africa. The nearest to it was probably
Botswana, which is four-fifths Tswana-and turned out to be peaceful and
prosperous, suggesting to some that countries populated and run by a single
big tribe have a better chance of stability than those with a hotch-potch of
smaller ones.
Somalia, however, became a byword for conflict, poverty and ungovernability.
Yet its ethnic homogeneity is misleading. Despite also sharing a single
language and religion, it is divided into more than 500 clans and sub-clans,
who are notoriously fractious and competitive. This, as well as their
largely nomadic way of life, has made many Somalis fiercely loth to accept
the edicts of a central government.
The last man to exert real authority from the capital, Mogadishu, was a
military dictator, Siad Barre, who was ousted in 1991. His downfall was the
cue for two decades of civil war. Can the country's latest president, Hassan
Sheikh Mohamud, who was elected by parliament last September, do any better,
while using democratic methods?
So far, so good. An uneasy peace holds in much of Somalia, thanks largely to
a promise of federalism and decentralised power. Under the prodding of
Britain, which has been leading a foreign push to put Somalia on its feet
again, the new government accepts that the half a dozen or so of Somalia's
fiefs that enjoy a measure of autonomy should be given their head-and should
be only gradually drawn back, if possible, into accepting central authority.
So far the mosaic of clans, with their shifting alliances, have mainly held
back from openly challenging Mr Mohamud's government while they wait to see
how resources and authority will be shared.
But Mohamed Omar, the foreign minister of Somaliland, a northern breakaway
from the rump of Somalia, says the government in Mogadishu has achieved
little despite its international backing. Both Somaliland and Puntland, a
semi-autonomous north-eastern region, cold-shouldered a grand international
conference on Somalia in London on May 7th. "The days when Somalia could be
governed from the centre are over," he said. "Anyone who brings them back
will not bring peace."
A former university dean and civil-rights activist, Mr Mohamud is well liked
by foreign governments. In London they pledged $300m in aid in return for
his promise of a "new Somalia". But at home his writ only runs in the areas
controlled by forces (mostly Ugandans, Kenyans and Ethiopians) under the
aegis of the African Union. He is being closely watched for any signs of
breaching his federal pledge.
Some worry that big tasks, such as completing a new constitution, outlining
how power will be shared and setting up commissions to define boundaries and
electoral systems, have yet to begin. Matt Bryden, a Canadian who runs Sahan
Research, a Somali-oriented think-tank in Nairobi, notes that "none of the
work has been done towards federalism," letting critics allege that the
government is more centralist than it admits. They fret that the new
security forces and police will be dominated by Mr Mohamud's powerful Hawiye
clan.
Abdi Aynte, the head of the Heritage Institute, a think-tank based in
Somalia, complains that too many conspiracy theories abound. The president
has no hidden agenda, he says, and "an incredibly hard job". Still, some of
Mr Mohamud's opponents in rival clans are still backing the Shabab, the
armed Islamists linked to al-Qaeda that previously dominated the country, to
destabilise him. In the past month, scores of people were killed in two
Shabab suicide-attacks in Mogadishu.
The United States, which has spent $1.5 billion channelled through the
African Union to bring better security, and Britain, which promised another
$280m in aid this week, are keen to take credit for gains in Somalia.
"Somalia has begun a rapid recovery in the last year," said Justine
Greening, Britain's development minister, at the conference. "But this will
be put at risk if the Somali government cannot manage its own public
finances properly, avoid future famines or tackle terrorism and piracy."
Quite so.
------------[ Sent via the dehai-wn mailing list by dehai.org]--------------
Received on Thu May 09 2013 - 16:01:42 EDT
