Darfur conflict: Sudan's bloody stalemate
By James Copnall Sudan analyst
30 April 2013 Last updated at 10:58 GMT
A decade after the disastrous war in Darfur began, there is no end to sight
to the fighting.
The intensity of the conflict in Sudan's western region has diminished since
its early years, but most of Darfur is still extremely dangerous.
More than 1.4 million displaced people still rely on food handouts in camps
throughout Darfur, and many others have fled the country.
The multi-layered conflict has also done colossal damage to Sudan's image:
The US and many Western activists have accused the government of genocide.
Even before the war broke out, Darfur was in trouble.
Like many of the regions on Sudan's periphery, it was underdeveloped and
politically marginalised.
Diminishing rainfall over decades had made life precarious in Darfur,
leading to recurring food shortages.
Surprise
There were frequent clashes between ethnic groups, often over "hakurat" or
land rights.
In the late 1980s, an Arab supremacist movement emerged, allegedly backed by
Libya's Muammar Gaddafi.
Identity in Darfur is both fluid and complicated, but African groups like
the Fur, Zaghawa and Masalit felt the government was taking the side of the
Arabs.
Religion was not an issue: Almost everyone in Darfur is Muslim.
The beginning of the war is usually given as 2003, though rebel movements
had been been formed before that.
In April 2003, rebels struck the airport of Fasher, capital of North Darfur.
The surprise raid through the desert - a tactic which became characteristic
of the fighting in Darfur - was astonishingly successful. The rebels
destroyed seven planes, and captured the head of the air force.
Khartoum - and the world - realised something serious was under way.
The Sudanese government's response, which relied on air power and an Arab
militia known as the Janjaweed, has been described by the Sudan expert Alex
de Waal as "counter-insurgency on the cheap".
Fur, Zaghawa and Masalit villages were bombed and burnt, civilians were
killed, and women were raped.
Warrants
In 2008, the UN estimated that 300,000 people had died because of the war,
though Khartoum disputes the figure.
Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir has been
<
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10603559> indicted by the International Criminal
Court (ICC) for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly
committed in Darfur.
The genocide charge alleged that he had overseen an attempt to wipe out part
of the Fur, Zaghawa and Masalit communities.
Mr Bashir was the first sitting head of state to be the subject of an ICC
arrest warrant.
He, and the other senior officials facing similar charges, have denied all
the accusations.
There is no doubt that the ICC arrest warrants have profoundly altered
Sudan.
The West wants nothing to do with President Bashir or his government.
Diplomats will not meet him, and there is little chance of Sudan getting its
crippling debt forgiven or US sanctions removed as long as he is in power.
However, the ICC charges actually increased the president's popularity in
Sudan and some Arab and African countries.
They were seen as an affront to Sudan's sovereignty, and in some cases as an
attack on Islam by the West.
Mr Bashir has not been arrested, and there seems little prospect of him
facing trial any time soon.
Common image
The war drags on, too.
A 2006 peace agreement was signed by only one of Darfur's many armed groups,
and this subsequently went back into rebellion.
In 2011, a minor rebel coalition signed the Doha Document for Peace in
Darfur (DDPD), and a splinter movement from another rebel group added its
name recently.
The DDPD promised wealth and power-sharing, development for Darfur, and
compensation for those who had suffered during the war.
So far, most of this has not happened.
Three rebel groups continue to fight the government: Two Sudan Liberation
Army factions, led by Abdul Wahid al-Nur and Minni Minawi; and Gibril
Ibrahim's Justice and Equality Movement (Jem).
In late 2011, the three joined up with the SPLM-North rebels, who operate in
Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile states, in a loose alliance known as the
Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF).
The UN has accused South Sudan of supporting the SRF, in particular by
hosting Jem on its territory, though Juba denies the charge.
The formation of the SRF scared Khartoum, but it has not yet changed the
military picture substantially.
The Darfuri rebels operate in an archipelago of no-go areas in Darfur, and
sometimes further afield.
Thaw in relations
This is no longer a simple war between rebels and the state, however, and it
has not been for some time.
In some years, the biggest contributor to the violent death toll in Darfur
is clashes between different Arab groups.
Some smaller African groups have fought for Khartoum, despite the common
image of the war as one between African rebels fighting against the
government and the Darfuri Arabs.
Ten years after it began, Darfur's messy, bloody stalemate persists.
The civil war is best understood as a conflict conducted on several levels
at once:
* On the local level, groups battle each other, usually over resources
* On the national level, rebels challenge the state
* On the international level, Sudan's neighbours and the world's great
powers often react to Darfur through the prism of their own national
interests.
President Bashir is convinced the US is attempting to overthrow him, while
Sudan relies on Chinese and Russian support in the UN Security Council.
At different points, Chad and Libya supported the Darfuri rebels, and
Khartoum helped armed rebellions in those countries too.
Khartoum is now on better terms with Ndjamena and Tripoli.
If the current thaw in relations with Juba continues, the Darfuri rebels
might find life more difficult.
But Darfur's problems will not end until a remedy is found for the
underlying causes of underdevelopment, political marginalisation, and
dwindling resources.
Darfur: The story so far...
* February 2003: Rebels in western region of Darfur rise up against
government, claiming the region is being neglected by Khartoum
* April 2003: The Sudanese Liberation Army strikes Fasher airport
* January 2004: Sudanese army moves to quell rebel uprising in
Darfur's western region. Hundreds of thousands of refugees flee
* March 2004: UN official says pro-government Arab Janjaweed militias
are carrying out systematic killings of non-Arab villagers in Darfur
* May 2006: One rebel faction signs a peace accord with the government
but it does not hold
* July 2007: UN Security Council approves a resolution authorising a
26,000-strong force for Darfur
* March 2009: The ICC issues arrest warrant for President Omar
al-Bashir on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. A second
warrant for genocide follows in July 2010
* May 2011: Doha Document for Peace in Darfur signed in Qatar
* September 2012: Clashes with rebels take place in Darfur and South
Kordofan
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Received on Tue Apr 30 2013 - 17:17:19 EDT
