Sudan-Cash, aid and diplomacy
Will the Sudanese, especially Darfuris, get a new deal?
Apr 11th 2013 | KHARTOUM |
<
http://www.economist.com/printedition/2013-04-06> From the print edition
PROMISING a new "atmosphere of freedoms", Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir
declared on April 1st that he would release all political prisoners; seven
prominent ones were immediately freed. His ministers are set to attend a
conference on April 7th in Qatar, where billions of dollars may be pledged
for the long-term development of Darfur, the western region which Mr
Bashir's army and proxy militias ravaged earlier this century, earning the
president an indictment at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for
alleged genocide. To round off a list of hopeful new departures, Mr Bashir's
long-running row with South Sudan, which seceded from his rump state two
years ago, may at last have been ended, thanks to an agreement that was
signed last month.
So is Mr Bashir, who says he will step down in 2015 after 26 years in power,
a leader now bent on reform? Few of his people would bet on it. But if he is
truly determined to give a new deal to the Darfuris, let alone the rest of
his citizens, it will certainly mark a dramatic change.
In the past decade billions of dollars have been spent by foreign
governments and charities in an effort to bring peace to Darfur. In 2003 and
2004 nearly 2m Darfuris fled fighting between rebel groups and
government-backed militias; more than 1m of them are still in grim camps, at
a cost of around $1 billion a year-and that does not include the annual $1.5
billion to pay for 20,000 peacekeepers under the auspices of the UN and the
African Union.
Yet attempts to impose a comprehensive and durable peace in Darfur have
repeatedly failed. Though chunks of that vast region are fairly stable,
rebel groups still fight the government and new conflicts periodically
erupt; this year 100,000 people fled after two Arab tribes battled over
newly discovered gold mines. The region is still lawless. In some respects,
the aid money and the stream of flashy Toyota Land Cruisers that come with
it have made things worse. Banditry, kidnapping, carjacking and looting
persist.
Yet the peacemakers soldier on. Most enthusiastic is the government of
Qatar. It sponsored the current peace plan, known clumsily as the Doha
Document for Peace in Darfur, that was signed in 2011. At first only the
Sudanese government and one of the myriad rebel groups endorsed it, though
another has recently followed suit. Foreign governments and the UN
peacekeepers are trying to help implement it.
The Qatari government is now attempting to raise another $7 billion-plus,
not just to keep the peace in Darfur but also to improve governance and
bring economic development. The hope is that the people stuck in the camps,
reliant on handouts, should go home, stand on their own feet and start
decent new lives.
For Western governments and charities this proposed switch from humanitarian
aid to development may not be easy. For one thing, it means a longer-term
commitment. For another, they would need to work more closely with Sudan's
government, despite Mr Bashir's indictment.
Some American lobbies are particularly wary of co-operating with Mr Bashir.
Ahead of the conference in Qatar, a group of them sent a letter to the emir:
"We object to any form of financial support by Qatar for Sudan, since such
support places your country, as well as all international donors, squarely
in the role of helping to fund the genocidal Sudanese regime." The American
ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, a confidant of Barack Obama, is said to
share such sentiments. American financial support for the conference may be
"politically awkward", says a diplomat in Khartoum, Sudan's capital. The
British government, the other main humanitarian donor in Darfur, is more
equivocal.
On paper the Sudanese government backs both the peace plan of 2011 and the
upcoming conference in Qatar. In reality it is loth to cough up much money
for either. Though it has promised to give more than $2.6 billion towards a
Darfur development plan, it is seriously short of cash, especially since it
lost most of its oil income after South Sudan seceded in 2011. It is hard to
see how Darfur will suddenly become an economic priority for Mr Bashir.
"There is no political will here in Khartoum to make Darfur work," says a
member of Sudan's opposition. "There never has been."
Mr Bashir and his government know it is in their political interest to sort
out Darfur. If they did, they might persuade America to lift the sanctions
it imposed as a result of Sudanese atrocities in Darfur a decade ago. Yet it
is hard to see Mr Bashir suddenly bringing peace and comfort to the region
he once so brutally ravaged.
------------[ Sent via the dehai-wn mailing list by dehai.org]--------------
Received on Thu Apr 11 2013 - 15:12:15 EDT
