East Africa: A New Friendship Between the Two Sudans?
By Daniel Pelz, 4 April 2013
Sudan and South Sudan have agreed to withdraw their troops from their joint
border area in early April. Oil is also due to start flowing again soon. How
long will this new friendship last?
"I don't think [the conflict between both sides] is over yet, but there is
significant rapprochement," Magdi el-Gizouli, a Sudanese expert with the
Rift Valley Institute, said in an interview with DW. Sudan and South Sudan
have until Thursday April 4, 2013 to withdraw their troops from their shared
border region.
The date was agreed on by both states at a meeting in March. There are no
signs of any last-minute problems.
Before South Sudan officially became independent in 2011, there were
disputes between Khartoum and Juba over the distribution of revenue from the
sale of oil. They also argued about the exact location of the border, the
status of citizens of one country living in the territory of the other, and
the status of the region of Abyei - without reaching any conclusion.
The lowest point in relations was reached in January 2012. After a dispute
over transit costs for oil pumped through pipelines running from the South
to the North, South Sudan halted oil production.
Several rounds of negotiations ended with no result. Then, in March 2013, a
new agreement was reached - and suddenly things started moving again. Both
sides agreed to withdraw troops from the border region. Only unarmed
policemen will remain whose task it will be to guard the 2,000
kilometer-long (1,242 miles) border.
They will be supported by a more than 1,000-strong UN police force.
A few days ago the government of South Sudan ordered oil companies to
restart production. Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir was quick to show his
thanks. He announced his intention of visiting South Sudan for the first
time since independence celebrations in July 2011.
Both countries need oil
"When the oil flow was stopped, it severely damaged both the northern and
the southern economy. Even though they dislike each other very intensely
(...), if they do not cooperate economically, both governments and both
societies will be at serious risk of collapse," said Andrew Natsios, a
former US special envoy to Sudan and author of the reference book "Sudan,
South Sudan, and Darfur: What Everyone Needs to Know."
The figures back up this theory. Without the input from oil revenue, the
northern economy has nose-dived during the last two years. According to the
International Monetary Fund, GDP fell by more than 11 percent in 2012.
During the same year prices rose by more than 28 percent.
In June 2012 the government of President al-Bashir responded by announcing
an austerity policy which included the end of subsidies for petrol and
certain foodstuffs. As a result, the price of petrol almost doubled and
there were clashes between demonstrators and security forces in the capital
Khartoum and other cities.
Soldiers without pay are a security risk
South Sudan has an even greater need for oil revenue than its northern
neighbor. The young nation is one of the poorest in the world. More than
half the population lives below the poverty line. 73 percent are illiterate
and the health system is in a dire state. 90 percent of the national budget
is financed by oil revenue.
There is also another reason why the South needs the money, says Andrew
Natsios.
"They are building schools, they are building health clinics and roads, but
the money is basically to pay state employees."
Natsios estimates there are 400.000 people on the southern payroll, made up
of 100,000 civil servants, plus 150,000 people in the regular southern army
and "150,000 people who are in militias who were aligned with the North but
the South, to keep peace, put them on the payroll as a reserve force."
Payments for the regular army alone account for a quarter of the budget.
No friendship without border security
The new friendship between the two neighbors does not yet stand on a firm
footing.
"The essential threat to this agreement is border security," says Magdi
el-Gizouli.
"However one must acknowledge that this is a very long border and a very
difficult border at that. It is not only the scene of activities of both
armies, but also the scene for activities of a lot of rebel groups and of
different proxy forces that have at one time or another fought on this or
the other side."
He also says the success of the agreement would hinge on how far the two
capitals are able to deal with forces under their command.
If there is any resumption of warfare on the border in one form or another,
"it would unfold in a fashion that will draw the two capitals into
confrontation again," el-Gizouli predicts. "On the other hand, if oil starts
flowing, the incentive for keeping the peace will be much greater than it is
now."
The South appears also to have a Plan B. In late March the government in
Juba announced that additional pipelines would be laid, running to Kenya and
Djibouti.
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Received on Thu Apr 04 2013 - 16:19:44 EDT
