Strong campaigning from president-elect won him votes in areas usually
dominated by his main rival.
Political analysts in Kenya say president-elect Uhuru Kenyatta won the
election earlier this month because he lifted significant numbers of votes
from areas traditionally supportive of his main rival, Raila Odinga.
After a protracted counting process, Kenyatta was declared winner on March 9
with 4,000 votes over the 50 per cent he needed to avoid going into a
second, runoff vote.
Kenyatta won 50.1 per cent of the vote, while Odinga polled 43. 3 per cent
with the rest of the votes shared by six other candidates.
On March 16, Odinga filed a petition at the Supreme Court in Nairobi
challenging the poll result and accusing Kenya's Independent Electoral and
Boundaries Commission, IEBC. A ruling will be made by March 30.
This election is likely to prove Odinga's last chance of becoming president
after an unsuccessful attempt in the election, held in December 2007.
Kenyatta and his running mate in the Jubilee coalition, William Ruto, are
facing trial at the International Criminal Court, ICC, for their alleged
role in orchestrating the bloodshed that erupted after the 2007 election was
disputed.
A third suspect, Joshua Arap Sang, also faces trial for the violence.
More than 1,100 people were killed and 600,000 others displaced as Kenya
experienced the worst electoral violence in its history. The conflict was
brought to a close in early 2008 when a coalition agreement was struck
between Odinga, who became prime minister, and Mwai Kibaki, who was declared
president.
In Kenya's first general election since that unrest analysts say Odinga, who
was standing for the Coalition for Reform and Democracy, CORD, appeared to
have lost some of the support he previously enjoyed in various parts of
Kenya.
Analysts say the Jubilee coalition secured more votes in traditionally CORD
constituencies than the other way round.
"When you look at the results, Uhuru [Kenyatta] received more votes in
Odinga's strongholds as compared to what Odinga scored in Uhuru [Kenyatta]
strongholds," Tom Wolf, lead researcher at IPSOS Synovate, said. "This is
attributed to the last-minute mobilisation done by Jubilee."
In Mandera county in northeastern Kenya - usually seen as a CORD stronghold
- Odinga picked up only around 4,000 thousand votes compared with a massive
94,000 for Kenyatta.
Turnout in Kenyatta's traditional support-bases was higher than in Odinga's,
and this too proved a decisive factor.
"In the 20 counties where Mr Kenyatta received most votes, the average voter
turnout was 88 per cent, while in the same number of counties Odinga had a
turnout of 84 per cent," Wolf said.
Kennedy Masime, executive director of the Centre for Governance and
Development and chairman of the Elections Observation Group, said that
Odinga failed to get enough of his traditional supporters to come out and
vote.
"[Kenyatta's] ability to mobilise his Central and Rift Valley voters is
hardly extraordinary. There were high stakes in this election, especially
given the ICC issue," Masime said.
Odinga's efforts to muster support proved particularly challenging in Coast
province - formerly one his strongholds - where a secessionist movement
known as the Muslim Republican Council, MRC, actively tried to dissuade
people from voting.
Masime said Odinga's hopes of becoming the next president were "dealt a
blow" in Coast, where turnout was only 60 to 70 per cent.
James Oranga, a political consultant in Nairobi, attributes CORD's lower
vote tally to Odinga being less vocal than his Jubilee rivals in encouraging
voters to register during a month-long process held at the end of last year.
"This is a sharp contrast to the Jubilee Alliance, which not only mobilised
its supporters to register but also implored them to go out and vote in
large numbers. This is evident from the figures released during the tallying
period," Oranga said.
Dr Adams Oloo of the University of Nairobi's Institute of Development
Studies says another factor in Kenyatta's favour is that he had more time
than Odinga to travel around the country and build up support. Kenyatta
stepped down as Kenyan finance minister in January 2012 after the ICC
confirmed the charges against him.
By contrast, Odinga continued to carry out his duties as prime minister
right up until formal campaigning got under way.
"[Odinga] seems to have [taken] his eye off the ball a long time ago, while
the Jubilee team remained on the ground mobilising support," Oloo said.
"Raila [Odinga] was likely too busy with other issues as prime minister."
In its campaign, CORD hoped to capitalise heavily on one apparently
favourable factor - the criminal charges that Kenyatta and Ruto face at the
ICC. Odinga repeatedly pointed out that, if elected, Kenyatta would be
forced to govern Kenya from The Hague, where his trial is scheduled to start
in July and could last several years.
Besides the practical difficulties posed by the trials, victims of the
2007-08 electoral violence have yet to see high-level perpetrators brought
to account. Hundreds of families have yet to return to their homes, or
resettle permanently elsewhere.
Nevertheless, analysts say Kenyatta and Ruto managed to turn the impending
ICC trials to their advantage.
In the Rift Valley, which is dominated by the Kikuyu and Kalenjin
communities - traditional backers of Kenyatta and Ruto, respectively - the
ICC charges did not deter people from voting for the two candidates.
During campaigning, the Jubilee candidates portrayed the ICC charges as an
indictment of the Kenyan people as a whole, and of their own ethnic groups
in particular.
"For Uhuru and Ruto, the ICC issue clearly played a major part in handing
them the contested victory," Martin Oloo, a political analyst in Nairobi,
said. "The Kalenjins and Kikuyus, who were seen to be the largest voting
bloc, seem to have been convinced that this was a case against them as
communities."
Oranga said that while Jubilee campaigned "vigorously" in the Rift region,
CORD "banked on a wrong assumption. They thought they will get a third of
the votes from Rift Valley, but ended up getting nothing from there."
In Martin Oloo's analysis, Odinga failed to make the most of the ICC issue,
and his handling of it actually played into Jubilee's hands.
In order to win votes among those opposed to the ICC trials ,Odinga said
that if he was elected president, he would try to bring the ICC cases back
to be tried in Kenya. However, in the Rift Valley this pledge gave rise to a
misperception that Odinga had some sort of control over the Hague process,
and was therefore responsible for Kenyatta and Ruto being charged in the
first place.
Oloo noted that Odinga changed direction near the end of his campaign,
telling voters that people must face justice for their crimes.
"That change of tack spoiled [things] for him, because he became
inconsistent. It was not strategic at all," Oloo said.
Other analysts say the key messages delivered in the Kenyatta campaign
contributed to his success.
Alfred Ng'ang'a, the manager of a public relations firm in Nairobi, argued
that one of Kenyatta's strengths was his focus on the important issues that
affect the day-to-day lives of "the common mwananchi" (a Swahili term
meaning "public").
"They [Jubilee] always spoke about problems facing the people, like lack of
food, insecurity, unemployment and they spoke more often about what their
government will do to offer solutions," Ng'ang'a told IWPR.
Ng'ang'a said Kenyatta also demonstrated a greater willingness than Odinga
to engage Kenya's young people, a key section of the electorate.
According to government figures, 75 per cent of Kenya's population is under
30 years old.
Ng'ang'a highlighted Kenyatta's use of modern tools like social media and
slogans such as "Dunda na Uhuru" ("Dance with Uhuru") which appealed to
young people.
The Jubilee Alliance also ran a poster campaign depicting young people
seeking a government that would create jobs.
By contrast, Ng'anga said, Odinga focused too much on promises to reform the
mechanisms of government and making amends for the failings of past
administrations, and did not make it clear enough what he would do for
Kenyans.
"Unlike Jubilee, CORD concentrated too much on dwelling on issues of the
past, which every government had been talking about, with no solutions,"
Ng'anga said.
Bernard Momanyi is a reporter for ReportingKenya.net and News Editor at
Capital FM in Nairobi.
This article was produced as part of a media development programme by IWPR
and Wayamo Communication Foundation in partnership with Capital FM.
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Received on Thu Mar 28 2013 - 19:57:17 EDT
