Hugo Chavez burst onto the national scene in Venezuela in a failed military
uprising in 1992.
Sentenced to jail for many years, he was soon pardoned as the Venezuelan
government did not consider either him or his movement much of a threat.
Yet his uncompromising attacks on political corruption and state
incompetence struck a chord in the Venezuelan people and he won the 1998
presidential election.
His first term in office was marked by moderation in foreign policy and he
was a frequent visitor to the US.
However, domestic policy was more radical, with a particular focus on social
programmes.
These centred on "missions" dedicated to improving access to health,
education, social security, food and land for the poorest sectors of
society.
An alliance began to take shape with Cuba in order to fulfil these
ambitions. His support among the poor soared.
Radical change
Mr Chavez's success in introducing a new constitution in 2000 signalled
longer term ambitions, as he could now run for office again with the option
of re-election.
The prospect of "Chavismo" becoming permanently established in Venezuela
created a backlash among those who had benefited from the old order.
A counter-revolution was soon under way and President Chavez was ousted from
the presidential palace in April 2002.
The US did not plan the counter-revolution, but it almost certainly knew
what was happening and did not warn the Venezuelan authorities.
Mr Chavez was restored to power in 48 hours by a military that at first
appeared to have supported the coup and he immediately embarked on a
vigorous campaign against his enemies at home and abroad.
Domestically, Mr Chavez's targets included the traditional political class
with its strong ties to the US.
To counter their influence in the media, President Chavez promoted state
television and pressured the judiciary to restrict the influence of
privately-owned means of communication.
He also replaced technocrats in the state oil company (PDVSA) with loyal
supporters.
Venezuela became increasingly politicised, with the debate focusing on the
role of President Chavez himself.
To maintain political support, Mr Chavez expanded his social programmes
using the income derived from high oil prices.
Minimum wages were increased sharply and many Venezuelans were lifted out of
poverty.
Other social indicators, notably literacy, also improved and Mr Chavez and
his political movement had little difficulty in defeating an opposition that
was deeply divided and unable to adjust to the new Venezuelan realities.
Regional vision
In foreign affairs, President Chavez followed an aggressively
anti-imperialist policy in which verbal attacks on the US became frequent.
He went out of his way to cultivate enemies of the US and deepened the
relationship with Cuba.
Yet his most important goal was the building of an alliance among the
countries of Latin America and the Caribbean that would fulfil the
frustrated dream of his great hero, South American independence leader Simon
Bolivar, two centuries before.
The first step towards the Bolivarian dream had been Petrocaribe - a scheme
to provide cheap oil to the countries of Central America and the Caribbean
that depend on imports.
It was hugely popular, with only Barbados refusing to take part.
This was followed by Alba, a regional integration scheme that would grow to
include Cuba, Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras (until 2009) and Nicaragua, as well
as a few small independent Caribbean states.
Venezuela under Mr Chavez, along with Brazil under President Luiz Inacio
Lula da Silva, also promoted a new regional architecture designed to embrace
all American states except the US and Canada.
This led to Unasur, the Union of South American countries, and a proposed
Community of Latin American and Caribbean nations (Celac).
It also led to a development bank designed to counter the influence of the
IMF.
Mr Chavez's ambitions to join Mercosur (the regional integration scheme
founded by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) were long blocked by the
Paraguayan senate.
But political upheaval in Paraguay led to the country being suspended from
the bloc, so clearing the way for Venezuela to be admitted in July 2012.
Enduring challenges
President Chavez's electoral success (he lost only one nationwide vote) did
not rest, it is safe to say, on his foreign policy.
This was very clear in the presidential election in October 2012, which he
won despite a strong challenge from the opposition.
It was due to the social policies that won him the enduring loyalty of the
country's poorest strata as well as some support from the middle classes.
But his government's policies failed to address several problems that
increasingly concern all sectors of society.
The first is the high level of common criminality, illustrated most clearly
by the exceptionally high homicide rate.
The second is the level of inflation, which has been exacerbated by the
devaluation of the currency despite the high oil price.
The third is the continuation of government corruption, including
allegations of nepotism against the Chavez family, accusations they have
long denied.
Finally, there is the issue of mismanagement of state resources as a result
of the politicisation of the bureaucracy, the judiciary and state-owned
enterprises.
Any successor to Hugo Chavez, whether from his own party or the opposition,
will need to tackle these issues, but they will do so without the undoubted
charisma that has sustained Chavez's popularity for many years. When that
happens, Venezuela will embark on a new chapter in its 200-year history.
Professor Victor Bulmer-Thomas is Associate Fellow, Americas, Chatham House
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Received on Thu Mar 07 2013 - 16:43:24 EST
