Around a year ago, the political transitional phase began in Yemen. If the
situation goes smoothly and national dialogue sessions are held on time (on
Feb. 18), this phase should be concluded with establishing a new system
based on the peaceful transition of power. What matters is that Yemen rises
after this phase as there are fears the country will sink in a swamp of
domestic and regional enticements which neither beginnings nor ends can be
predicted.
Unfortunately, the future of Yemen, a country with an ancient civilization,
is vulnerable to the unknown. There is no clear plan agreed upon aiming to
put the country on the path of a new phase, formula and governance that
resolve the many problems confronting the country and its helpless people
who suffered since before declaring the republic in 1962.
What we are currently witnessing is the country's exposure to many
influences, some foreign and others domestic. Iranian interference in Yemeni
affairs is no longer a secret.
Iranian meddling
Some think that the most dangerous aspect of this act is expanding the area
controlled by Houthis in the North and the expansion of the Houthis towards
Sana'a.
In addition to that, there are also fears that Iran's meddling will help
Houthis pile weapons in the capital and gain influence in central regions
which are the most populated areas and which include Yemen's biggest city
Taiz. What is weird is that the Houthis who had converted from Zaidiyyah
(Shiite) to Twelver Shiite have found means to infiltrate central areas,
including Taiz, although they are mostly Shafii (Sunni) areas.
It seems clear that Iran's interference is not limited to what used to be
called the north. Through the Houthis, the Iranians have managed to find
some leverage for themselves in Taiz and surrounding areas. They also
support the "Southern Movement" which calls for separation and returning to
the status quo as it was before May 1990 when unification was achieved
between the two halves of Yemen.
Muslim Brotherhood finding their role
What further worsens the situation is the Muslim Brotherhood's attempt to
fortify their positions all over Yemen by counting on their old organization
and the tribal structure of the country. The Brotherhood has found someone
who will support it from among the tribes after Sheikh Abdullah Bin Hussein
al-Ahmar, God bless his soul, played a role in finding a tribal cover for a
big Islamic party, which the Brotherhood called "The Yemeni Congregation for
Reform" is a part of among others.
Sheikh Abdullah was an exceptional man by all standards due to the power he
had within the tribe of Hashid which he was its leader and due to power he
had within all Yemeni tribes. He also had relations with President Ali
Abdullah Saleh who ruled Yemen for 33 years.
Since before the transitional phase, a change to the core has occurred in
Yemen. What cannot be currently ignored is that there is a division in the
north. The Houthis are benefiting to the maximum from it due to Ali Abdullah
Saleh's exit from power and the collapse of the previous formula called "the
formula of the sheikh and the president."
Sheikh Abdullah Bin Hussein al-Ahmar disappeared from the Yemeni arena
whilst Ali Abdullah Saleh had to quit due to tribal and popular and even
regional and international pressure.
We are currently in front of a new Yemen. A united Yemen which at least
appears to be no longer controlled from Sana'a. In this new Yemen, there are
areas completely controlled by Houthis. There are also other areas
controlled by "Al-Qaeda," and there are people publicly calling for
separation. Is separation a solution in Yemen...or is it the shortest path
towards the country's fragmentation? Is it a coincidence that Iran supports
the Houthis in the north and the separatists in the south?
There is no solution on the short run for the Houthi phenomenon which is the
biggest threat confronting Yemen on the long run. It is a complicated issue
that requires experts, rather wise people, who take into consideration that
since the establishment of the republic a historical darkness has befallen
on the people of Saada and nearby provinces like Amran, Al-Jawf...and even
Hajjah.
Houthi phenomenon
It is not possible to endeavor to resolve the Houthi phenomenon, which is
dangerous by all standards, amid the continuity of the current problems in
the south and the Muslim Brotherhood's attempt to prepare themselves to
seize power after the transitional phase ends. The Brotherhood attempts to
do so regardless of what the Houthis are doing in their areas, even inside
Sana'a, and regardless of what is happening in southern or eastern provinces
or in Hadramaut where al-Qaeda is working to strengthen its presence by
mostly making use of ignorance.
It is a must to find a starting point for Yemen after the transitional
phase. There was a president who chose to evade engaging in futile
confrontations. This president accepted to cede power. This president whose
name is Ali Abdullah Saleh had virtues and vices. However, the manner in
which he exited power and remained in Yemen show that no one can cancel
anyone in the country.
What attracts attention before, after and during the last visit that
President Abdrabuh Mansour Hadi made to Aden was the awakening of all
sensitivities that were present in the south before unification. This is a
reality that someone like President Abdrabuh is not considered to be
responsible for in any way whatsoever. If these sensitivities had not
existed, the "People's Democratic Republic of Yemen" would not have
collapsed and unity would not have been achieved in 1990.
This simply means that one can begin from the south to resolve Yemen's
entire problems. Yemen needs a new governance formula based on
decentralization and not separation here and there. Who said that Aden's
people are closer to Hadramout's than they are to Taiz's?
'Lost' Yemen
Briefly speaking, Yemen's problem is not in unity but in the need for a new
governance formula that allows discussing what can be done in the phase
after the "sheikh and the president" collapsed.
Yemen is no longer controlled from Sana'a like it was before. Yemen has
become lost. This is what the Iranians realized before others did, and that
is why they bet early on the Houthis and on separatism...and on everything
that fuels disputes and divisions as well as on the Brotherhood, the Salafis
and "Al-Qaeda's" activity.
Is it possible to hold a dialogue that takes into consideration that the
problem is not in unity as much as it is in the need to look for a new
governance formula established on the basis that Yemen, which we knew
before, as a central state ruling from Sana'a is no longer present?
Khairallah Khairallah is a Lebanese writer who has previously worked at
Lebanon's Annahar newspaper, he then moved to London and began writing
political columns in Arabic language newspapers, including AlMustaqbal and
Rosa ElYoussef.
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Received on Tue Mar 05 2013 - 08:29:13 EST
