<
http://www.ethiopianreview.net/index/?p=60172> Salavation in worshiping
Meles? His successors hope so - Economist
Ruling Ethiopia
Long live the king
Ethiopia's new leadership is practising hero-worship
February 16, 2013
DURING his two decades running Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi almost single-handedly
engineered its rise from lost cause to model pupil. Even his enemies admit
he was both popular and competent. Often working around the clock, he could
make complex policy choices and then explain them to ordinary people. He
planned meticulously for everything-from road building to oppressing the
opposition-except, that is, for his own demise.
It came six months ago on August 20th, following illness at the age of 57,
and left the state reeling. Meles, as he is known, had grabbed so much power
that many feared his death would spark political chaos and an economic
downturn. He alone had the trust of the soldiers, the financiers, the
Ethiopian people and the West.
But the transition to a new prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, has gone
smoothly. The streets of Addis Ababa, the capital, have seen no unrest and
the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)
suffered no defections. A few audible grumbles were swiftly silenced.
Rioting Muslims were beaten back. A minister was fired as were four regional
officials in events that may or may not be related to the leadership change.
Jockeying among the elite has been kept behind firmly closed doors. In
public it espouses business as usual.
Instead of chaos, an eerie calm now hangs over the country. The old guard
that once surrounded Meles, who hailed from the northern region of Tigray,
remains in power. Winners of a 1980s civil war that toppled the dictator
Mengistu Haile Mariam, the Tigrayans have held on to top security jobs.
Meles's widow, Azeb Mesfin, who for a few months refused to move out of the
prime ministerial palace, still controls a state-affiliated conglomerate,
EFFORT. The number of Tigrayans in the cabinet has shrunk but key posts
remain in the hands of ageing loyalists, many of whom fought alongside
Meles. Talk of "generational change" over the past few years was seemingly a
charade.
One of the few exceptions is the relatively young prime minister, Mr
Desalegn. The 47-year-old is an articulate and experienced administrator as
well as a former water engineer who studied in Finland. But he lacks his
predecessor's charisma and shrewd policy instincts. Though a former deputy
prime minister (and former foreign minister) he is not an insider. He is a
Protestant in a predominantly Orthodox Christian nation (his first name
means "the power of Mary"). He is also an ethnic Wolaytan in a government
dominated by Tigrayans. Meles, his mentor, may have chosen him for that
reason, either to weaken ethnic divisions or perhaps to guarantee that
ultimate power remains with his northern brothers-in-arms.
As the new chairman of the EPRDF, Mr Desalegn may eventually attain
sufficient control to reshape the ruling party, but only if he survives long
enough. For the moment he seems to have little room to manoeuvre, lacking
his own power base in the security forces. He has publicly pledged to
continue his predecessor's work "without any changes".
Those who know him say he is more comfortable with capitalism than many of
the leftists around him. He was never a Marxist, but nor does he have an
alternative vision for the country. Few Ethiopians know his name, though he
does well internationally; he was recently elected chairman of the African
Union. "We want him to be a leader not a follower," says a progressive
Ethiopian who occasionally meets him, but doubts his authority.
In his first six months in power, the prime minister has announced few new
policies. Reform efforts are frozen. Economic liberalisation has been
postponed at least until after elections in 2015. Party leaders seem unsure
how to survive without Meles. They govern on autopilot, following the
blueprints he left behind. Conformity of thought is common and new ideas are
seemingly unwelcome.
Meles was so central to the Ethiopian state that his followers are trying to
keep him alive with a Mao-style cult of personality. Even months after his
death, Addis Ababa is still plastered with bereavement posters. They cover
entire sides of buildings and run for hundreds of metres along fences.
Banners declare "we will continue your work" and "we will never forget you".
The body of the former prime minister is buried under a tall granite arch
next to Holy Trinity Cathedral where Haile Selassie, the last Ethiopian
emperor, is entombed. New propaganda tracts depict Meles as a selfless
leader who sacrificed his life for his country. His party is trying to wring
as much legitimacy as possible from his legacy. It may be too early to speak
of a post-Meles era-even in death he is the country's most visible
politician.
The future could yet be difficult. Without the former prime minister's zeal,
authority and attention to detail, the system he created could founder.
Vested interests once kept at bay may reassert themselves. Reform projects
could not just stall but break down irreparably. The fight against
corruption and for economic progress will slow. Officialdom is already
adrift, unsure of which way to turn. Only when the grizzled Tigrayan bosses
at last step down might a new generation of leaders return to the ambitious
experimentation that was an essential ingredient in Meles's success. A move
to genuine democracy, which he talked about but never dared to try, remains
far off.
Ethiopia's leaders are confused. They hail Meles as their country's uniquely
brilliant leader but act as if they can govern just as he did.
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Received on Fri Feb 15 2013 - 15:03:05 EST
