Uganda: Editor's Q & A - How Has Museveni Stayed in Power?
By James Schneider, 13 February 2013
Analysis
Think Africa Press' editor explains the dynamics behind the Ugandan
president's support from the West, domestic control and staying power.
Q: How has President Yoweri Museveni managed to become one of the world's
longest serving heads of state?
Yoweri Museveni's 27 years in power is the exception in post-independence
Uganda. The country's first president, Frederick Mutesa II, was deposed
after less than three years in power.
His successor, Milton Obote, was the victim of a coup led by Idi Amin. Idi
Amin was overthrown following the Uganda-Tanzania war. This paved the way
for Obote to return to power before he was deposed once again, this time
leading to the rise of Tito Okello. Tito Okello was deposed by Museveni in
1986.
Since then, Museveni has managed to maintain power through great skill at
manipulating to his own advantage in international, regional and domestic
politics, as well as keeping firm control over the military.
Q: Despite claims of corruption and allegations of the illegal military
activities, Uganda has generally been considered an ally of the West and an
'aid darling'. Why is this?
Museveni's first decade and a half in power brought him plaudits and praise
from the international and donor communities. He tackled HIV/AIDS head on
and presented himself as an intellectual, open to debate and dialogue.
Delighted by the 1996 establishment of multiparty elections, the
international community swooned and soon Museveni found himself with both
strong personal support and plenty of aid money to distribute.
Museveni was seen as an aid darling and part of a new generation of
progressive African leaders. Like the other three on that original list -
Rwanda's Paul Kagame, Ethiopia's Meles Zenawi and Eritrea's Isaias Afewerki
- Museveni's halo began to slip with the abolition of term limits, increased
publicity around cases of corruption, and a greater understanding of the
crimes committed during the Second Congo War.
However, Museveni continues to be the West's indispensable leader in the
Great Lakes region, despite more recent allegations of support for the M23
rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The wily old
leader can be counted on to cause trouble for Sudan's Omar al-Bashir, a bête
noire for the international community, and to provide the manpower for the
fight against al-Shabaab in Somalia.
Whilst Museveni used to gain support for his internal policies and great PR,
now it is geopolitical realities which keeps Museveni in favour despite
everything else.
Q: How has Museveni kept Uganda's powerful military in check?
Museveni, like Paul Kagame in neighbouring Rwanda, came to power at the head
of a rebel movement, which then became the country's military and
government. Also like Kagame, Museveni never let the military get out of his
control and has kept them thoroughly occupied.
First, the military was sent to subdue the north where Acholi, Teso and
Langi communities - from which much of Obote's and Okello's armies were
recruited - resided; this, however, turned into the long running fight with
the rebel group, the Lord's Resistance Army.
The Ugandan People's Defence Force (UPDF) - so named after the promulgation
of the 1995 constitution - was also deployed to the DRC during the Second
Congo War (1998-2003). And now, the Ugandan military forms the largest
component of the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM).
As well as keeping the army busy, Museveni has also been careful not to
allow alternative poles of power to emerge within the military. He remained
commander of the armed forces and initially promoted many Tutsi Rwandans to
senior positions; the Rwandans eventually left the Ugandan military to fight
and then overthrow the Rwandan government in 1994.
For example, Paul Kagame was Museveni's first chief of military intelligence
after winning the Bush War. Besides this, Museveni has used the age old
method of promoting his family - both his son and brother are senior
military figures - and using the spoils of war, especially from the DRC, to
keep generals happy and at bay.
Q: What about politically? Is there any notable opposition to Museveni?
This strategy of preventing alternative poles of power from emerging has
also been what Museveni has relied on to maintain control of domestic
politics. Whilst there is opposition to his rule, it has thus far failed to
become a major unified force that can challenge power.
This is in part due to the ruling party's divide and rule tactics, but also
because of harassment of major opposition figures such as Kizza Besigye,
Museveni's former doctor in during the Bush War.
Museveni also has been successful, so far, in clipping the wings or allowing
the wings to be clipped of potential rivals from within his regime. Many
feel that Prime Minister Amana Mbabazi's recent troubles with corruption
allegations stem from Museveni not protecting him.
However, there are signs of restiveness in the country. 2011 saw the Walk to
Work protests with revolt coming out into the open. And Uganda's parliament,
including Museveni's own National Resistance Movement caucus, are causing
enough problems for the regime and the military to have recently made crude
threats about a return to military rule if parliament does not toe the
executive's line.
Q: What's next for Museveni?
Museveni's successes in manipulating domestic politics could eventually
prove to be a factor in his eventual demise. He has no obvious successor
having prevented anybody from developing to the point where they may be able
to challenge him.
He has often repeated that he is the only person with the "vision" to lead
Uganda and that he will not exit the scene until he has discovered someone
else with the requisite "vision". This is causing problems within his own
party as a new generation of MPs have begun to agitate for generational
change.
Museveni's rule is less secure than it once was. But, whilst he may not be
the "governance expert" he labelled himself last year, his pure longevity
demonstrates that he is a staying-in-power expert.
James Schneider is the Editor-in-Chief of Think Africa Press. He read
Theology at the University of Oxford and has a particular interest in the
study of political economy, patterns of investment, and perspectives from
the Global South. Email: editor_at_thinkafricapress.com. Follow him on twitter
_at_schneiderhome.
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Received on Wed Feb 13 2013 - 14:57:37 EST
