Nairobi - Kenya is headed for a make or break general election in less than
two months and the economy is showing all characteristics of taking another
blow.
Charged political activity in the country has taken toll on the economy as
most uncompleted projects may need to wait until after the March fourth
elections as donors withhold funding as anxiety over the nature of the
general election takes shape.
Government departments are also slowly shutting as the election mood sweeps
across the country. Parliament will be officially dissolved in less than a
month to give politicians time off for their campaigns.
This is the biggest and most expensive election in Kenyan history given that
it is the first one under the new constitution which heralded a County
Government. For the first time, instead of the usual three tier government
where Kenyans used to choose the local government representative, Member of
Parliament and President, they will be choosing six representatives at the
same time following the devolved government. The six include President,
County Governor, Senator, Member of Parliament, County Representative and
Women Representative.
Preparations for the poll are in top gear with the Independent Electoral and
Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the body that replace the now defunct
Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) assuring the public that every measure
was in place to ensure a free and fair election general.
Most analysts have pointed out that the growth of the Kenyan economy how at
4.5 per cent will be heavily pegged on the success of the general with most
raising the red flag that any form of electoral malpractice or violence
could seriously affect ongoing projects and future investment plans.
The World Bank late last year expressed optimism that the economic growth
could hit the 5 per cent mark by June if the elections are free and fair.
The post-election violence that followed the 2007 general elections
seriously tainted Kenya's image and took a heavy toll on the economy.
An estimated $100 million was lost in business in addition to over 400 death
and hundreds of thousands of internal displacements. The economy that was
then growing at 7 per cent took a plunge to an all-time low of 1.7 per cent.
The stakes are high in this election and none other than the main players in
the political arena know this best. President Mwai Kibaki is serving is last
two months in office with incumbent Prime Minister emerging as a front
runner in the presidential race.
His main competitor is former finance Minister and current Deputy Prime
Minister Uhuru Kenya who is also a key suspect in the 2007 post-election
violence. Uhuru and his running mate William Ruto are both undergoing
prosecution at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague,
Netherlands.
President Kibaki is hailed as having returned Kenya to the path of economic
prosperity and Kenyans are keen on replacing him with a development minded
leader.
The overarching tribal card could also surface in the elections with all
indications pointing to the fact that the country is as ethnically divided
as it was in the run-up to the 2007 general election.
The political frontrunners are mostly expecting majority of their votes from
their ethnic backyards and areas perceived as politically friendly.
This election alone will cost the Kenyan taxpayer an estimated $650 million
with most of the funds coming from the public coffers and a little coming in
from foreign donors.
Sensitive sectors of the economy such as tourism, agriculture and
manufacturing will be the most affected by the electioneering period with
reports indicating low bookings and bed occupancy in Mombasa which is
regards as the bedrock of Kenyan tourism.
The world will be watching closely how Kenya circumvents the electoral
process as it will sure make-or-break the Kenyan nation.
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Received on Mon Jan 14 2013 - 18:00:05 EST
