Date: Sun, 30 Oct 2011 00:11:48 +0200
The Third Intervention: Kenya's Incursion into Somalia Goes Where Others
Have Failed
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 9 Issue: 39
October 29, 2011 12:55 PM Age: 1 days
By:
<http://www.jamestown.org/articles-by-author/?no_cache=1&tx_cablanttnewsstaf
frelation_pi1%5Bauthor%5D=626> Muhyadin Ahmed Roble
As grenades explode in crowded Nairobi pubs, Kenyan jet fighters bomb
targets inside Somalia and France agrees to supply Kenyan forces, Kenya's
military intervention in Somalia against the Islamist militant group
al-Shabaab raises many questions regarding the future security of East
Africa. The Kenyan Army entered Somalia on October 16 after the
September-October cross-border kidnappings of foreign tourists and aid
workers in Kenya blamed on al-Shabaab (one French hostage, 66-year-old Marie
Dedieu, disabled and ill with cancer, has since died, apparently of
ill-treatment). The intervention, known as "Operation Linda Nchi (Defend the
Country)," was launched a day after Kenya's internal security minister
George Saitoti branded al-Shabaab "the enemy" and vowed to attack them
"wherever they are." [1]
Kenyan foreign minister Moses Wetangula said the army was in Somalia to
drive out al-Shabaab fighters who were threatening Kenya's tourism industry,
its second largest foreign exchange earner. (BBC, October 16). Al-Shabaab
has denied the accusations of kidnapping, describing them as "a flimsy
pretext for the Kenyan military's incursion into the Somali border." [2]
On October 19, Kenyan military spokesman Major Emmanuel Chirchir said that
Kenyan soldiers were marching on Afmadow, about 120 km. east of the Kenyan
border, where they expected to meet up with troops of Somalia's Transitional
Federal Government (TFG) who were already trying to take the town from
al-Shabaab forces (Capital FM News [Nairobi], October 19). "The next town is
Kismayo. The troops are ready for anything. If it takes us to December they
are willing to celebrate Christmas there," said Major Chirchir. The port of
Kismayo is a key target as it is a major source of revenue for al-Shabaab,
which is otherwise suffering financially during the ongoing drought in
southern Somalia (Star [Nairobi], October 19; Kenya Broadcasting
Corporation, October 20).
However, there are fears that Kenya's first foreign intervention might end
like previous interventions in Somalia by the United States and Ethiopia.
"As it seems, it will end in retreat and failure," said Professor Ibrahim
Sheikh Hassan who used to teach political science at Strategy College in
Mogadishu. Although Kenya has a well-equipped army, Professor Ibrahim said
it has no experience in engaging in war with terrorists and guerrilla
forces, adding that it will be hard for Kenyans to defeat al-Shabaab in
Somalia. He notes that pushing al-Shabaab back from the border will not be
hard but keeping them at bay will be challenging. Regarding the small force
of 2,000 men deployed by the Kenyan Army across the border, Professor
Ibrahim says a force of this size is unlikely to penetrate far into
al-Shabaab-held territory: "It seems to me that they know nothing about
al-Shabaab and the conflict in Somalia." [3]
In response to the intervention, al-Shabaab threatened retaliatory attacks
in Kenya if authorities do not withdraw troops from Somalia. "Kenya has
peace, its cities have tall buildings and business is flourishing there,
while Somalia is in chaos. If your government ignores our calls to stop its
aggression on Somali soil, we will strike at the heart of your interests,"
said Shaykh Ali Mohamud Dheere, an al-Shabaab spokesman. "Your attack on us
means your skyscrapers will be destroyed. Your tourism will disappear. We
shall inflict on you the same damage you inflicted on us," he added. [4]
An official statement from al-Shabaab outlined some of the group's
grievances with Kenya:
Kenya has been forcibly recruiting refugees and training militia along the
border for several years and has also been heavily involved in Somalia's
political affairs - both internal and external. The recent incursion of
Kenyan troops into Somali territory, however, not only highlights Kenya's
imprudence in sending her non-combat-tested troops to become entangled in
Somalia's intricate web of war, but also a willful negligence towards her
citizens. [5]
A former chief of the Somalia Appeals Court, Ahmed Shaykh Ali, told
Jamestown that the main object of the intervention is unclear: "As I know,
they entered the country without any consultation with [the Somali]
government and actually that is against international laws. It is against
the sovereignty of Somalia. [Kenya] was [supposed] to talk to the government
before its army crossed the border." While he welcomes the drive to force
al-Shabaab out of the country, Ahmed Shaykh Ali worries that Kenya has a
secret plan for the future of the Somali border towns: "Somali people
distrust neighboring countries. And neighboring countries themselves create
the distrust." [6] Kenyan Foreign Minister Wetangulu maintains that Kenya is
eliminating the Somali militants at the request of the TFG, while denying
Kenyan plans to occupy any part of Somalia (The People, October 20).
Mogadishu-based analyst Abdikadir Osman warned that the operation will end
in failure if Kenya does not state clearly the future of its army in
Somalia. "How long will they remain in the country? They have to address the
issue now, not after seizing the land." Osman noted that the Somalis do not
welcome foreign intervention because "we always have suspicion." [7]
Precedent suggests that the Kenyan operation will not be entirely
successful. A multinational intervention, the United Nations Operation in
Somalia II (UNOSOM II) which involved more than 28,000 U.S. and
international troops, ended in failure after the 1994 Battle of Mogadishu.
Ethiopia, which has an historic conflict with Somalia, carried out the
second foreign intervention in Somalia in late 2006 to oust the Islamic
Courts Union (ICU), justifying its U.S. backed invasion, like Kenya, as
"self-defense." Although it succeeded in getting rid of the ICU, the latter
was replaced by a more determined military offshoot, al-Shabaab. Ethiopian
troops were never secure during a two-year occupation and eventually
withdrew in early 2009 with Somalia more unstable than before the
intervention.
The third and ongoing intervention is by the Ugandan and Burundian troops of
the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which began operations in
2007. With recent reinforcements bringing the mission to a high of 9,000
troops, AMISOM's progress in retaking Mogadishu has been struck hard by a
series of al-Shabaab ambushes and suicide attacks in the last two weeks.
Notes:
1. Kenyan Security and Defense Ministers' press conference, Nairobi, October
15, 2011.
2. Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, "Statement Regarding the Kenyan
Accusations and Incursion into Somalia," Mogadishu, October 17, 2011.
3. Author's Interview with Professor Ibrahim Sheikh Hassan, Nairobi, October
20, 2011.
4. Al-Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Ali Dheere, Press Conference, Mogadishu,
October 17, 2011.
5. Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, "Statement Regarding the Kenyan
Accusations and Incursion into Somalia," Mogadishu, October 17, 2011.
6. Author's interview with Ahmed Shaykh Ali, Nairobi, October 18, 2011.
7. Author's interview with Abdikadir Osman, political analyst, 19th October,
2011, Mogadishu.
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